Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections
We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model (MM) ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 MM mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, bot...
| Published in: | Environmental Research: Climate |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2024
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://doaj.org/article/5e42abb3f61c4e639f74db57d2f4e349 |
| Summary: | We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model (MM) ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 MM mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large. |
|---|