Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases
Permafrost soils store huge amounts of organic carbon, which could be released if climate change promotes thaw. Currently, modelling studies predict that thaw in boreal regions is mainly sensitive to warming, rather than changes in precipitation or vegetation cover. We evaluate this conclusion for N...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5da884556fe34b4e855c7a632d1b2cab 2023-09-05T13:22:30+02:00 Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases Mathew Williams Yu Zhang Cristian Estop-Aragonés James P Fisher Georgios Xenakis Dan J Charman Iain P Hartley Julian B Murton Gareth K Phoenix 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 https://doaj.org/article/5da884556fe34b4e855c7a632d1b2cab EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/5da884556fe34b4e855c7a632d1b2cab Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 11, p 114050 (2020) thaw permafrost leaf area index thermal modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 2023-08-13T00:37:16Z Permafrost soils store huge amounts of organic carbon, which could be released if climate change promotes thaw. Currently, modelling studies predict that thaw in boreal regions is mainly sensitive to warming, rather than changes in precipitation or vegetation cover. We evaluate this conclusion for North American boreal forests using a detailed process-based model parameterised and validated on field measurements. We show that soil thermal regimes for dominant forest types are controlled strongly by soil moisture and thus the balance between evapotranspiration and precipitation. Under dense canopy cover, high evapotranspiration means a 30% increase in precipitation causes less thaw than a 1 °C increase in temperature. However, disturbance to vegetation promotes greater thaw through reduced evapotranspiration, which results in wetter, more thermally conductive soils. In such disturbed forests, increases in precipitation rival warming as a direct driver of thaw, with a 30% increase in precipitation at current temperatures causing more thaw than 2 °C of warming. We find striking non-linear interactive effects on thaw between rising precipitation and loss of leaf area, which are of concern given projections of greater precipitation and disturbance in boreal forests. Inclusion of robust vegetation-hydrological feedbacks in global models is therefore critical for accurately predicting permafrost dynamics; thaw cannot be considered to be controlled solely by rising temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 15 11 114050 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
thaw permafrost leaf area index thermal modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
thaw permafrost leaf area index thermal modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Mathew Williams Yu Zhang Cristian Estop-Aragonés James P Fisher Georgios Xenakis Dan J Charman Iain P Hartley Julian B Murton Gareth K Phoenix Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
topic_facet |
thaw permafrost leaf area index thermal modelling Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Permafrost soils store huge amounts of organic carbon, which could be released if climate change promotes thaw. Currently, modelling studies predict that thaw in boreal regions is mainly sensitive to warming, rather than changes in precipitation or vegetation cover. We evaluate this conclusion for North American boreal forests using a detailed process-based model parameterised and validated on field measurements. We show that soil thermal regimes for dominant forest types are controlled strongly by soil moisture and thus the balance between evapotranspiration and precipitation. Under dense canopy cover, high evapotranspiration means a 30% increase in precipitation causes less thaw than a 1 °C increase in temperature. However, disturbance to vegetation promotes greater thaw through reduced evapotranspiration, which results in wetter, more thermally conductive soils. In such disturbed forests, increases in precipitation rival warming as a direct driver of thaw, with a 30% increase in precipitation at current temperatures causing more thaw than 2 °C of warming. We find striking non-linear interactive effects on thaw between rising precipitation and loss of leaf area, which are of concern given projections of greater precipitation and disturbance in boreal forests. Inclusion of robust vegetation-hydrological feedbacks in global models is therefore critical for accurately predicting permafrost dynamics; thaw cannot be considered to be controlled solely by rising temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mathew Williams Yu Zhang Cristian Estop-Aragonés James P Fisher Georgios Xenakis Dan J Charman Iain P Hartley Julian B Murton Gareth K Phoenix |
author_facet |
Mathew Williams Yu Zhang Cristian Estop-Aragonés James P Fisher Georgios Xenakis Dan J Charman Iain P Hartley Julian B Murton Gareth K Phoenix |
author_sort |
Mathew Williams |
title |
Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
title_short |
Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
title_full |
Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
title_fullStr |
Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
title_full_unstemmed |
Boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
title_sort |
boreal permafrost thaw amplified by fire disturbance and precipitation increases |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 https://doaj.org/article/5da884556fe34b4e855c7a632d1b2cab |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 11, p 114050 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/5da884556fe34b4e855c7a632d1b2cab |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abbeb8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114050 |
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1776203027875627008 |