Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
Abstract As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustain...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/article/5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 2024-09-15T18:30:02+00:00 Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods Joanne L. Wood Stephan Harrison Ryan Wilson Adam Emmer Jeffrey S. Kargel Simon J. Cook Neil F. Glasser John M. Reynolds Dan H. Shugar Christian Yarleque 2024-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/article/5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/article/5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 7, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) climate change GLOF natural hazards Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long‐standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900–2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 51 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change GLOF natural hazards Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
climate change GLOF natural hazards Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Joanne L. Wood Stephan Harrison Ryan Wilson Adam Emmer Jeffrey S. Kargel Simon J. Cook Neil F. Glasser John M. Reynolds Dan H. Shugar Christian Yarleque Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
topic_facet |
climate change GLOF natural hazards Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long‐standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900–2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Joanne L. Wood Stephan Harrison Ryan Wilson Adam Emmer Jeffrey S. Kargel Simon J. Cook Neil F. Glasser John M. Reynolds Dan H. Shugar Christian Yarleque |
author_facet |
Joanne L. Wood Stephan Harrison Ryan Wilson Adam Emmer Jeffrey S. Kargel Simon J. Cook Neil F. Glasser John M. Reynolds Dan H. Shugar Christian Yarleque |
author_sort |
Joanne L. Wood |
title |
Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_short |
Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_full |
Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_fullStr |
Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shaking up Assumptions: Earthquakes Have Rarely Triggered Andean Glacier Lake Outburst Floods |
title_sort |
shaking up assumptions: earthquakes have rarely triggered andean glacier lake outburst floods |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/article/5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 7, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2023GL105578 https://doaj.org/article/5c291689651b42169daf04d9ba245f55 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105578 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
7 |
_version_ |
1810471529203367936 |