Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys
Abstract Background The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacifi...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b704 2023-05-15T15:15:34+02:00 Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 https://doaj.org/article/5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b704 EN eng BMC http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 https://doaj.org/toc/1349-4147 doi:10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 1349-4147 https://doaj.org/article/5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b704 Tropical Medicine and Health, Vol 46, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2018) Lymphatic filariasis Papua New Guinea Prevalence Predictive model Diagnostic tests Risk map Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 2022-12-30T22:51:03Z Abstract Background The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are unclear. Methods We reviewed the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis reported in 295 surveys conducted in PNG between 1990 and 2014, of which 65 used more than one test. Results from different diagnostics were standardised using a set of criteria that included a model to predict antigen prevalence from microfilariae prevalence. We mapped the point location of each of these surveys and categorised their standardised prevalence estimates. Results Several predictive models were produced and investigated, including the effect of any mass drug administration and number of rounds prior to the surveys. One model was chosen based on goodness of fit parameters and used to predict antigen prevalence for surveys that tested only for microfilariae. Standardised prevalence values show that 72% of all surveys reported a prevalence above 0.05. High prevalence was situated on the coastal north, south and island regions, while the central highland area of Papua New Guinea shows low levels of prevalence. Conclusions Our study is the first to provide an explicit predictive relationship between the prevalence values based on empirical results from antigen and microfilaria tests, taking into account the occurrence of mass drug administration. This is a crucial step to combine studies to develop risk maps of lymphatic filariasis for programme planning and evaluation, as shown in the case of Papua New Guinea. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Tropical Medicine and Health 46 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Lymphatic filariasis Papua New Guinea Prevalence Predictive model Diagnostic tests Risk map Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
spellingShingle |
Lymphatic filariasis Papua New Guinea Prevalence Predictive model Diagnostic tests Risk map Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
topic_facet |
Lymphatic filariasis Papua New Guinea Prevalence Predictive model Diagnostic tests Risk map Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
description |
Abstract Background The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are unclear. Methods We reviewed the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis reported in 295 surveys conducted in PNG between 1990 and 2014, of which 65 used more than one test. Results from different diagnostics were standardised using a set of criteria that included a model to predict antigen prevalence from microfilariae prevalence. We mapped the point location of each of these surveys and categorised their standardised prevalence estimates. Results Several predictive models were produced and investigated, including the effect of any mass drug administration and number of rounds prior to the surveys. One model was chosen based on goodness of fit parameters and used to predict antigen prevalence for surveys that tested only for microfilariae. Standardised prevalence values show that 72% of all surveys reported a prevalence above 0.05. High prevalence was situated on the coastal north, south and island regions, while the central highland area of Papua New Guinea shows low levels of prevalence. Conclusions Our study is the first to provide an explicit predictive relationship between the prevalence values based on empirical results from antigen and microfilaria tests, taking into account the occurrence of mass drug administration. This is a crucial step to combine studies to develop risk maps of lymphatic filariasis for programme planning and evaluation, as shown in the case of Papua New Guinea. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves |
author_facet |
Alvaro Berg Soto Zhijing Xu Peter Wood Nelly Sanuku Leanne J. Robinson Christopher L. King Daniel Tisch Melinda Susapu Patricia M. Graves |
author_sort |
Alvaro Berg Soto |
title |
Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
title_short |
Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
title_full |
Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
title_fullStr |
Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
title_sort |
combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in papua new guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 https://doaj.org/article/5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b704 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Tropical Medicine and Health, Vol 46, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 https://doaj.org/toc/1349-4147 doi:10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 1349-4147 https://doaj.org/article/5c140a2152804d748d6933b6abe4b704 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8 |
container_title |
Tropical Medicine and Health |
container_volume |
46 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766345942682828800 |