Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates
The best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental record of historical warming becomes coherent with other lines of evidence when the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of surface temperature change (pattern effect) is incorporated. Pattern...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://doaj.org/article/5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c 2023-07-30T04:06:47+02:00 Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates A. Modak T. Mauritsen 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://doaj.org/article/5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c EN eng Copernicus Publications https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/7535/2023/acp-23-7535-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 23, Pp 7535-7549 (2023) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 2023-07-16T00:37:33Z The best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental record of historical warming becomes coherent with other lines of evidence when the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of surface temperature change (pattern effect) is incorporated. Pattern effect strength is usually estimated with atmosphere-only model simulations forced with observed historical sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice change and constant pre-industrial forcing. However, recent studies indicate that pattern effect estimates depend on the choice of SST boundary condition dataset, due to differences in the measurement sources and the techniques used to merge and construct them. Here, we systematically explore this dataset dependency by applying seven different observed SST datasets to the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model covering 1871–2017. We find that the pattern effect ranges from - 0.01 ± 0.09 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="777cc679781f35d6dc1f625b1f7bf436"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> to 0.42±0.10 W m −2 K −1 (standard error), whereby the commonly used Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIPII) dataset produces by far the largest estimate. When accounting for the generally weaker pattern effect in MPI-ESM1.2-LR compared to other models, as well as dataset dependency and intermodel spread, we obtain a combined pattern effect estimate of 0.37 W m −2 K −1 [ −0.14 to 0.88 W m −2 K −1 ] (5th–95th percentiles) and a resulting instrumental record ECS estimate of 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0 K], which as a result of the weaker pattern effect is slightly lower and better constrained than in previous studies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23 13 7535 7549 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 A. Modak T. Mauritsen Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) constrained based on the instrumental record of historical warming becomes coherent with other lines of evidence when the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of surface temperature change (pattern effect) is incorporated. Pattern effect strength is usually estimated with atmosphere-only model simulations forced with observed historical sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice change and constant pre-industrial forcing. However, recent studies indicate that pattern effect estimates depend on the choice of SST boundary condition dataset, due to differences in the measurement sources and the techniques used to merge and construct them. Here, we systematically explore this dataset dependency by applying seven different observed SST datasets to the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model covering 1871–2017. We find that the pattern effect ranges from - 0.01 ± 0.09 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="777cc679781f35d6dc1f625b1f7bf436"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.svg" width="64pt" height="10pt" src="acp-23-7535-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> to 0.42±0.10 W m −2 K −1 (standard error), whereby the commonly used Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (AMIPII) dataset produces by far the largest estimate. When accounting for the generally weaker pattern effect in MPI-ESM1.2-LR compared to other models, as well as dataset dependency and intermodel spread, we obtain a combined pattern effect estimate of 0.37 W m −2 K −1 [ −0.14 to 0.88 W m −2 K −1 ] (5th–95th percentiles) and a resulting instrumental record ECS estimate of 3.2 K [1.8 to 11.0 K], which as a result of the weaker pattern effect is slightly lower and better constrained than in previous studies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Modak T. Mauritsen |
author_facet |
A. Modak T. Mauritsen |
author_sort |
A. Modak |
title |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_short |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_full |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_fullStr |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_full_unstemmed |
Better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
title_sort |
better-constrained climate sensitivity when accounting for dataset dependency on pattern effect estimates |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 https://doaj.org/article/5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 23, Pp 7535-7549 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/7535/2023/acp-23-7535-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/5b89a07924c145069abd7a9599947c5c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7535-2023 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
13 |
container_start_page |
7535 |
op_container_end_page |
7549 |
_version_ |
1772819695070609408 |