The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model
The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are pr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5a1b431dad124ea680d3209279adcfbc 2023-05-15T14:50:27+02:00 The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model A. Dörnbrack M. C. Pitts L. R. Poole Y. J. Orsolini K. Nishii H. Nakamura 2012-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012 https://doaj.org/article/5a1b431dad124ea680d3209279adcfbc EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/3659/2012/acp-12-3659-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/5a1b431dad124ea680d3209279adcfbc Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 12, Iss 8, Pp 3659-3675 (2012) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012 2022-12-31T02:39:54Z The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Greenland Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12 8 3659 3675 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 A. Dörnbrack M. C. Pitts L. R. Poole Y. J. Orsolini K. Nishii H. Nakamura The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Dörnbrack M. C. Pitts L. R. Poole Y. J. Orsolini K. Nishii H. Nakamura |
author_facet |
A. Dörnbrack M. C. Pitts L. R. Poole Y. J. Orsolini K. Nishii H. Nakamura |
author_sort |
A. Dörnbrack |
title |
The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
title_short |
The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
title_full |
The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
title_fullStr |
The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
title_full_unstemmed |
The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
title_sort |
2009–2010 arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012 https://doaj.org/article/5a1b431dad124ea680d3209279adcfbc |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 12, Iss 8, Pp 3659-3675 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/3659/2012/acp-12-3659-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/5a1b431dad124ea680d3209279adcfbc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3659 |
op_container_end_page |
3675 |
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1766321481131753472 |