Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model
Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that the Arctic climate is undergoing important transition. One manifestation of this change is seen in the rapid sea-ice cover decrease as experienced in 2007 and 2012. Although most numerical climate models cannot adequately reproduce the recent ch...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:59ef32b51a394e9fb26626f43be9491e 2023-05-15T13:11:22+02:00 Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model Jean-Philippe Paquin Ralf Döscher Laxmi Sushama Torben Koenigk 2013-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19110 https://doaj.org/article/59ef32b51a394e9fb26626f43be9491e EN eng Stockholm University Press www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/19110/pdf_1 https://doaj.org/toc/0280-6495 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 doi:10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19110 0280-6495 1600-0870 https://doaj.org/article/59ef32b51a394e9fb26626f43be9491e Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 65, Iss 0, Pp 1-24 (2013) coupled regional climate model rapid ice loss events Arctic climate scenarios sea-ice Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19110 2022-12-30T23:54:18Z Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that the Arctic climate is undergoing important transition. One manifestation of this change is seen in the rapid sea-ice cover decrease as experienced in 2007 and 2012. Although most numerical climate models cannot adequately reproduce the recent changes, some models produce similar Rapid Ice Loss Events (RILEs) during the mid–21st-century. This study presents an analysis of four specific RILEs clustered around 2040 in three transient climate projections performed with the coupled Rossby Centre regional Atmosphere-Ocean model (RCAO). The analysis shows that long-term thinning causes increased vulnerability of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover. In the Atlantic sector, pre-conditioning (thinning of sea ice) combined with anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transport causes large ice loss, while in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice albedo feedback appears important, particularly along the retreating sea-ice margin. Although maximum sea-ice loss occurs in the autumn, response in surface air temperature occurs in early winter, caused by strong increase in ocean-atmosphere surface energy fluxes, mainly the turbulent fluxes. Synchronicity of the events around 2040 in the projections is caused by a strong large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly at the Atlantic lateral boundary of the regional model. The limited impact on land is caused by vertical propagation of the surface heat anomaly rather than horizontal, caused by the absence of low-level temperature inversion over the ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 65 1 19110 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
coupled regional climate model rapid ice loss events Arctic climate scenarios sea-ice Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
coupled regional climate model rapid ice loss events Arctic climate scenarios sea-ice Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jean-Philippe Paquin Ralf Döscher Laxmi Sushama Torben Koenigk Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
topic_facet |
coupled regional climate model rapid ice loss events Arctic climate scenarios sea-ice Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that the Arctic climate is undergoing important transition. One manifestation of this change is seen in the rapid sea-ice cover decrease as experienced in 2007 and 2012. Although most numerical climate models cannot adequately reproduce the recent changes, some models produce similar Rapid Ice Loss Events (RILEs) during the mid–21st-century. This study presents an analysis of four specific RILEs clustered around 2040 in three transient climate projections performed with the coupled Rossby Centre regional Atmosphere-Ocean model (RCAO). The analysis shows that long-term thinning causes increased vulnerability of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover. In the Atlantic sector, pre-conditioning (thinning of sea ice) combined with anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transport causes large ice loss, while in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice albedo feedback appears important, particularly along the retreating sea-ice margin. Although maximum sea-ice loss occurs in the autumn, response in surface air temperature occurs in early winter, caused by strong increase in ocean-atmosphere surface energy fluxes, mainly the turbulent fluxes. Synchronicity of the events around 2040 in the projections is caused by a strong large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly at the Atlantic lateral boundary of the regional model. The limited impact on land is caused by vertical propagation of the surface heat anomaly rather than horizontal, caused by the absence of low-level temperature inversion over the ocean. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jean-Philippe Paquin Ralf Döscher Laxmi Sushama Torben Koenigk |
author_facet |
Jean-Philippe Paquin Ralf Döscher Laxmi Sushama Torben Koenigk |
author_sort |
Jean-Philippe Paquin |
title |
Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
title_short |
Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
title_full |
Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
title_fullStr |
Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
title_sort |
causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model |
publisher |
Stockholm University Press |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19110 https://doaj.org/article/59ef32b51a394e9fb26626f43be9491e |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Pacific |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_source |
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 65, Iss 0, Pp 1-24 (2013) |
op_relation |
www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/download/19110/pdf_1 https://doaj.org/toc/0280-6495 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 doi:10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19110 0280-6495 1600-0870 https://doaj.org/article/59ef32b51a394e9fb26626f43be9491e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19110 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
65 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
19110 |
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