The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain
It has long been understood that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key driver of regional climate in Great Britain and across Europe. However, studies have also noted that there is spatio-temporal variability in NAO-rainfall signatures which arguably limits its practical inclusion in water m...
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2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:59ddfe63f20d436396306f518a6ecd0a 2023-05-15T17:31:08+02:00 The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain Harry West Paul White Nevil Quinn Michael Horswell 2022-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030429 https://doaj.org/article/59ddfe63f20d436396306f518a6ecd0a EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/3/429 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13030429 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/59ddfe63f20d436396306f518a6ecd0a Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 429, p 429 (2022) North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern Scandinavian Pattern East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern Polar/Eurasia Pattern precipitation variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030429 2022-12-31T13:45:04Z It has long been understood that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key driver of regional climate in Great Britain and across Europe. However, studies have also noted that there is spatio-temporal variability in NAO-rainfall signatures which arguably limits its practical inclusion in water management. In this study we quantify, at high spatio-temporal resolution, the influence of a broader set of atmospheric circulations on monthly precipitation. Using Standardised Precipitation Indices for the Integrated Hydrological Unit (IHU) Groups of Great Britain we apply univariate and multivariate regression models to understand the potential of five atmospheric circulation indices to explain precipitation variability. As far as we are aware this represents the first high spatial and temporal resolution analysis quantifying the influence of a broad set of atmospheric circulations, both individually and in combination. We highlight the influence of each circulation and establish that the NAO only partially explains precipitation variability, especially in the southern regions and during the summer months, where circulations, such as the East Atlantic Pattern, also have an important influence. In summary, we suggest that there is significant explanatory value in looking beyond the NAO when seeking to understand hydroclimatological variability in Great Britain, and there is potential for future work to explore how this understanding can translate into the practical application of atmospheric circulation indices in water management. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 13 3 429 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern Scandinavian Pattern East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern Polar/Eurasia Pattern precipitation variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern Scandinavian Pattern East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern Polar/Eurasia Pattern precipitation variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Harry West Paul White Nevil Quinn Michael Horswell The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern Scandinavian Pattern East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern Polar/Eurasia Pattern precipitation variability Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
It has long been understood that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key driver of regional climate in Great Britain and across Europe. However, studies have also noted that there is spatio-temporal variability in NAO-rainfall signatures which arguably limits its practical inclusion in water management. In this study we quantify, at high spatio-temporal resolution, the influence of a broader set of atmospheric circulations on monthly precipitation. Using Standardised Precipitation Indices for the Integrated Hydrological Unit (IHU) Groups of Great Britain we apply univariate and multivariate regression models to understand the potential of five atmospheric circulation indices to explain precipitation variability. As far as we are aware this represents the first high spatial and temporal resolution analysis quantifying the influence of a broad set of atmospheric circulations, both individually and in combination. We highlight the influence of each circulation and establish that the NAO only partially explains precipitation variability, especially in the southern regions and during the summer months, where circulations, such as the East Atlantic Pattern, also have an important influence. In summary, we suggest that there is significant explanatory value in looking beyond the NAO when seeking to understand hydroclimatological variability in Great Britain, and there is potential for future work to explore how this understanding can translate into the practical application of atmospheric circulation indices in water management. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Harry West Paul White Nevil Quinn Michael Horswell |
author_facet |
Harry West Paul White Nevil Quinn Michael Horswell |
author_sort |
Harry West |
title |
The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain |
title_short |
The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain |
title_full |
The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain |
title_fullStr |
The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Spatio-Temporal Influence of Atmospheric Circulations on Monthly Precipitation in Great Britain |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal influence of atmospheric circulations on monthly precipitation in great britain |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030429 https://doaj.org/article/59ddfe63f20d436396306f518a6ecd0a |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 429, p 429 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/3/429 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13030429 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/59ddfe63f20d436396306f518a6ecd0a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030429 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
429 |
_version_ |
1766128469223145472 |