Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine
ABSTRACTBiomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights int...
Published in: | International Journal of Circumpolar Health |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 https://doaj.org/article/59a2b3a10daa4771ac97949922da015b |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:59a2b3a10daa4771ac97949922da015b 2024-01-21T10:04:00+01:00 Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine Adam W. Potter David P. Looney Karl E. Friedl 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 https://doaj.org/article/59a2b3a10daa4771ac97949922da015b EN eng Taylor & Francis Group https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 https://doaj.org/toc/2242-3982 doi:10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 2242-3982 https://doaj.org/article/59a2b3a10daa4771ac97949922da015b International Journal of Circumpolar Health, Vol 82, Iss 1 (2023) biophysics modelling thermophysiology hypothermia frostbite military operations Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 2023-12-24T01:42:47Z ABSTRACTBiomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be “freezing to death” within days because of declining temperatures (down to −20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Circumpolar Health International Journal of Circumpolar Health Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic International Journal of Circumpolar Health 82 1 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
biophysics modelling thermophysiology hypothermia frostbite military operations Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
spellingShingle |
biophysics modelling thermophysiology hypothermia frostbite military operations Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Adam W. Potter David P. Looney Karl E. Friedl Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine |
topic_facet |
biophysics modelling thermophysiology hypothermia frostbite military operations Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 |
description |
ABSTRACTBiomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be “freezing to death” within days because of declining temperatures (down to −20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Adam W. Potter David P. Looney Karl E. Friedl |
author_facet |
Adam W. Potter David P. Looney Karl E. Friedl |
author_sort |
Adam W. Potter |
title |
Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine |
title_short |
Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine |
title_full |
Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine |
title_fullStr |
Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine |
title_full_unstemmed |
Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine |
title_sort |
use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen russian soldiers in ukraine |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 https://doaj.org/article/59a2b3a10daa4771ac97949922da015b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Circumpolar Health International Journal of Circumpolar Health |
genre_facet |
Arctic Circumpolar Health International Journal of Circumpolar Health |
op_source |
International Journal of Circumpolar Health, Vol 82, Iss 1 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 https://doaj.org/toc/2242-3982 doi:10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 2242-3982 https://doaj.org/article/59a2b3a10daa4771ac97949922da015b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/22423982.2023.2194504 |
container_title |
International Journal of Circumpolar Health |
container_volume |
82 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1788694420360527872 |