Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change
Most earth system models (ESMs) neglect climate feedbacks arising from carbon release from thawing permafrost, especially from thawing of subsea permafrost (SSPF). To assess the fate of SSPF in the next 1000 years, we implemented SSPF into JSBACH, the land component of the Max Planck Institute Earth...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:597c041b08b643978b0dd17b6ff8fd67 2023-05-15T16:37:09+02:00 Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change S. Wilkenskjeld F. Miesner P. P. Overduin M. Puglini V. Brovkin 2022-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 https://doaj.org/article/597c041b08b643978b0dd17b6ff8fd67 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1057/2022/tc-16-1057-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/597c041b08b643978b0dd17b6ff8fd67 The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 1057-1069 (2022) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 2022-12-30T22:28:41Z Most earth system models (ESMs) neglect climate feedbacks arising from carbon release from thawing permafrost, especially from thawing of subsea permafrost (SSPF). To assess the fate of SSPF in the next 1000 years, we implemented SSPF into JSBACH, the land component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). This is the first implementation of SSPF processes in an ESM component. We investigate three extended scenarios from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the 21st century only small differences are found among the scenarios, but in the upper-end emission scenario SSP5–8.5 (shared socio-economic pathway), especially in the 22nd century, SSPF ice melting is more than 15 times faster than in the pre-industrial period. In this scenario about 35 % of total SSPF volume and 34 % of SSPF area are lost by the year 3000 due to climatic changes. In the more moderate scenarios, the melting rate maximally exceeds that of pre-industrial times by a factor of 4, and the climate change induced SSPF loss (volume and area) by the year 3000 does not exceed 14 %. Our results suggest that the rate of melting of SSPF ice is related to the length of the local open-water season and thus that the easily observable sea ice concentration may be used as a proxy for the change in SSPF. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 16 3 1057 1069 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 S. Wilkenskjeld F. Miesner P. P. Overduin M. Puglini V. Brovkin Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Most earth system models (ESMs) neglect climate feedbacks arising from carbon release from thawing permafrost, especially from thawing of subsea permafrost (SSPF). To assess the fate of SSPF in the next 1000 years, we implemented SSPF into JSBACH, the land component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). This is the first implementation of SSPF processes in an ESM component. We investigate three extended scenarios from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In the 21st century only small differences are found among the scenarios, but in the upper-end emission scenario SSP5–8.5 (shared socio-economic pathway), especially in the 22nd century, SSPF ice melting is more than 15 times faster than in the pre-industrial period. In this scenario about 35 % of total SSPF volume and 34 % of SSPF area are lost by the year 3000 due to climatic changes. In the more moderate scenarios, the melting rate maximally exceeds that of pre-industrial times by a factor of 4, and the climate change induced SSPF loss (volume and area) by the year 3000 does not exceed 14 %. Our results suggest that the rate of melting of SSPF ice is related to the length of the local open-water season and thus that the easily observable sea ice concentration may be used as a proxy for the change in SSPF. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Wilkenskjeld F. Miesner P. P. Overduin M. Puglini V. Brovkin |
author_facet |
S. Wilkenskjeld F. Miesner P. P. Overduin M. Puglini V. Brovkin |
author_sort |
S. Wilkenskjeld |
title |
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
title_short |
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
title_full |
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
title_fullStr |
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
title_sort |
strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 https://doaj.org/article/597c041b08b643978b0dd17b6ff8fd67 |
genre |
Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 1057-1069 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1057/2022/tc-16-1057-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/597c041b08b643978b0dd17b6ff8fd67 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
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16 |
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3 |
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1057 |
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1069 |
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