The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case
The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from histo...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc5863 2023-05-15T16:39:22+02:00 The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson 2021-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021 https://doaj.org/article/583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc5863 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/1455/2021/cp-17-1455-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc5863 Climate of the Past, Vol 17, Pp 1455-1482 (2021) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021 2022-12-31T13:02:50Z The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from historic sources. Based on a compilation of instrumental and reconstructed temperature time series, we show here that tropical temperatures show a significant drop in response to the ∼ 1809 eruption that is similar to that produced by the Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815, while the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) boreal summer temperature is spatially heterogeneous. We test the sensitivity of the climate response simulated by the MPI Earth system model to a range of volcanic forcing estimates constructed using estimated volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) and uncertainties from ice-core records. Three of the forcing reconstructions represent a tropical eruption with an approximately symmetric hemispheric aerosol spread but different forcing magnitudes, while a fourth reflects a hemispherically asymmetric scenario without volcanic forcing in the NH extratropics. Observed and reconstructed post-volcanic surface NH summer temperature anomalies lie within the range of all the scenario simulations. Therefore, assuming the model climate sensitivity is correct, the VSSI estimate is accurate within the uncertainty bounds. Comparison of observed and simulated tropical temperature anomalies suggests that the most likely VSSI for the 1809 eruption would be somewhere between 12 and 19 Tg of sulfur. Model results show that NH large-scale climate modes are sensitive to both volcanic forcing strength and its spatial structure. While spatial correlations between the N-TREND NH temperature reconstruction and the model simulations are weak in terms of the ensemble-mean model results, individual model simulations show good correlation over North America and Europe, suggesting the spatial heterogeneity of the 1810 cooling could ... Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate of the Past 17 4 1455 1482 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The “1809 eruption” is one of the most recent unidentified volcanic eruptions with a global climate impact. Even though the eruption ranks as the third largest since 1500 with a sulfur emission strength estimated to be 2 times that of the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, not much is known of it from historic sources. Based on a compilation of instrumental and reconstructed temperature time series, we show here that tropical temperatures show a significant drop in response to the ∼ 1809 eruption that is similar to that produced by the Mt. Tambora eruption in 1815, while the response of Northern Hemisphere (NH) boreal summer temperature is spatially heterogeneous. We test the sensitivity of the climate response simulated by the MPI Earth system model to a range of volcanic forcing estimates constructed using estimated volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) and uncertainties from ice-core records. Three of the forcing reconstructions represent a tropical eruption with an approximately symmetric hemispheric aerosol spread but different forcing magnitudes, while a fourth reflects a hemispherically asymmetric scenario without volcanic forcing in the NH extratropics. Observed and reconstructed post-volcanic surface NH summer temperature anomalies lie within the range of all the scenario simulations. Therefore, assuming the model climate sensitivity is correct, the VSSI estimate is accurate within the uncertainty bounds. Comparison of observed and simulated tropical temperature anomalies suggests that the most likely VSSI for the 1809 eruption would be somewhere between 12 and 19 Tg of sulfur. Model results show that NH large-scale climate modes are sensitive to both volcanic forcing strength and its spatial structure. While spatial correlations between the N-TREND NH temperature reconstruction and the model simulations are weak in terms of the ensemble-mean model results, individual model simulations show good correlation over North America and Europe, suggesting the spatial heterogeneity of the 1810 cooling could ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson |
author_facet |
C. Timmreck M. Toohey D. Zanchettin S. Brönnimann E. Lundstad R. Wilson |
author_sort |
C. Timmreck |
title |
The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
title_short |
The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
title_full |
The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
title_fullStr |
The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
title_full_unstemmed |
The unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
title_sort |
unidentified eruption of 1809: a climatic cold case |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021 https://doaj.org/article/583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc5863 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 17, Pp 1455-1482 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/1455/2021/cp-17-1455-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/583d32a5a74940f0a603ed4421bc5863 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1455-2021 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1455 |
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1482 |
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1766029712548691968 |