Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic
One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 https://doaj.org/article/57cfe6e92a3945ce9e9688b9e061673c |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:57cfe6e92a3945ce9e9688b9e061673c 2023-09-05T13:17:01+02:00 Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic Brage B Hansen Ketil Isaksen Rasmus E Benestad Jack Kohler Åshild Ø Pedersen Leif E Loe Stephen J Coulson Jan Otto Larsen Øystein Varpe 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 https://doaj.org/article/57cfe6e92a3945ce9e9688b9e061673c EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/57cfe6e92a3945ce9e9688b9e061673c Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 11, p 114021 (2014) climate change impact wildlife permafrost icing warm spell rain on snow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 2023-08-13T00:37:25Z One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice permafrost polar night Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Svalbard Environmental Research Letters 9 11 114021 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change impact wildlife permafrost icing warm spell rain on snow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change impact wildlife permafrost icing warm spell rain on snow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Brage B Hansen Ketil Isaksen Rasmus E Benestad Jack Kohler Åshild Ø Pedersen Leif E Loe Stephen J Coulson Jan Otto Larsen Øystein Varpe Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic |
topic_facet |
climate change impact wildlife permafrost icing warm spell rain on snow Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brage B Hansen Ketil Isaksen Rasmus E Benestad Jack Kohler Åshild Ø Pedersen Leif E Loe Stephen J Coulson Jan Otto Larsen Øystein Varpe |
author_facet |
Brage B Hansen Ketil Isaksen Rasmus E Benestad Jack Kohler Åshild Ø Pedersen Leif E Loe Stephen J Coulson Jan Otto Larsen Øystein Varpe |
author_sort |
Brage B Hansen |
title |
Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic |
title_short |
Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic |
title_full |
Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic |
title_sort |
warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the high arctic |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 https://doaj.org/article/57cfe6e92a3945ce9e9688b9e061673c |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice permafrost polar night Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice permafrost polar night Svalbard |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 11, p 114021 (2014) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/57cfe6e92a3945ce9e9688b9e061673c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114021 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114021 |
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1776198375724548096 |