Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea
Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 https://doaj.org/article/57b7b06d68754df7a79fb52c73fd9ab8 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:57b7b06d68754df7a79fb52c73fd9ab8 2023-05-15T15:06:43+02:00 Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea O. Rieke M. Årthun J. S. Dörr 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 https://doaj.org/article/57b7b06d68754df7a79fb52c73fd9ab8 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1445/2023/tc-17-1445-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/57b7b06d68754df7a79fb52c73fd9ab8 The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 1445-1456 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 2023-04-09T00:33:56Z Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Barents Sea The Cryosphere 17 4 1445 1456 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 O. Rieke M. Årthun J. S. Dörr Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
O. Rieke M. Årthun J. S. Dörr |
author_facet |
O. Rieke M. Årthun J. S. Dörr |
author_sort |
O. Rieke |
title |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_short |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_full |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_sort |
rapid sea ice changes in the future barents sea |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 https://doaj.org/article/57b7b06d68754df7a79fb52c73fd9ab8 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 1445-1456 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1445/2023/tc-17-1445-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/57b7b06d68754df7a79fb52c73fd9ab8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1445 |
op_container_end_page |
1456 |
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1766338267957952512 |