Dynamic behavior of sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil (1954-2008)

• Published in: Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
• Main Authors: Fernando Portela Câmara, Ana Luisa Bessa Bacellar Gomes, Luiz Max Fagundes de Carvalho, Luiz Gustavo Veloso Castello
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) 2011
• Subjects: Febre amarela silvestre; Periodicidade; Análise espectral; Epidemiologia; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1590/s0037-86822011005000024; https://doaj.org/article/576357e687d94aef8a0dfc19380b8b93

INTRODUCTION: Sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) is enzootic in Brazil, causing periodic outbreaks in humans living near forest borders or in rural areas. In this study, the cycling patterns of this arbovirosis were analyzed. METHODS: Spectral Fourier analysis was used to capture the periodicity patterns of SYF in time series. RESULTS: SYF outbreaks have not increased in frequency, only in the number of cases. There are two dominant cycles in SYF outbreaks, a seven year cycle for the central-western region and a 14 year cycle for the northern region. Most of the variance was concentrated in the central-western region and dominated the entire endemic region. CONCLUSIONS: The seven year cycle is predominant in the endemic region of the disease due the greater contribution of variance in the central-western region; however, it was possible identify a 14 cycle that governs SYF outbreaks in the northern region. No periodicities were identified for the remaining geographical regions.