Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Abstract The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal internationa...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:572e7442237345a98f431c02550848b2 2023-11-05T03:42:56+01:00 Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict Hui Huang Jingying Zhao Haibin Liu Shuai Ren Meng Liu Haiping Liu Feng An Yanlei Guo Haizhong An 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 https://doaj.org/article/572e7442237345a98f431c02550848b2 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/572e7442237345a98f431c02550848b2 Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2023) Medicine R Science Q article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 2023-10-08T00:39:21Z Abstract The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal international trade inevitable. The intricate trade relations between trading countries have formed a coal trade network. When a country’s coal exports are limited due to geopolitical factors, it will cause coal supply risks. The risk will spread to more countries along the trade network, eventually leading to the collapse of the trade network. This paper builds a crisis propagation model of the coal supply under the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the cascading failure model. The results showed that the Czech Republic, Ireland, Portugal, and Bulgaria become abnormal as the proportion of coal exports β increases. When the Russian Federation reduced its coal exports by 80% and countries maintained only 10% coal exports against crisis, 23 European countries were the worst. Iceland, Ireland, Turkey and other countries were spread by the indirect risk and became abnormal countries. The Czech Republic and Bulgaria were spread by multiple risk and became abnormal countries. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Hui Huang Jingying Zhao Haibin Liu Shuai Ren Meng Liu Haiping Liu Feng An Yanlei Guo Haizhong An Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Abstract The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal international trade inevitable. The intricate trade relations between trading countries have formed a coal trade network. When a country’s coal exports are limited due to geopolitical factors, it will cause coal supply risks. The risk will spread to more countries along the trade network, eventually leading to the collapse of the trade network. This paper builds a crisis propagation model of the coal supply under the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the cascading failure model. The results showed that the Czech Republic, Ireland, Portugal, and Bulgaria become abnormal as the proportion of coal exports β increases. When the Russian Federation reduced its coal exports by 80% and countries maintained only 10% coal exports against crisis, 23 European countries were the worst. Iceland, Ireland, Turkey and other countries were spread by the indirect risk and became abnormal countries. The Czech Republic and Bulgaria were spread by multiple risk and became abnormal countries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hui Huang Jingying Zhao Haibin Liu Shuai Ren Meng Liu Haiping Liu Feng An Yanlei Guo Haizhong An |
author_facet |
Hui Huang Jingying Zhao Haibin Liu Shuai Ren Meng Liu Haiping Liu Feng An Yanlei Guo Haizhong An |
author_sort |
Hui Huang |
title |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_short |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_full |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_fullStr |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_full_unstemmed |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_sort |
research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the russia-ukraine conflict |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 https://doaj.org/article/572e7442237345a98f431c02550848b2 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/572e7442237345a98f431c02550848b2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 |
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Scientific Reports |
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