Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M)
Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 https://doaj.org/article/57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d 2023-05-15T15:13:23+02:00 Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) E. M. Knudsen J. E. Walsh 2016-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 https://doaj.org/article/57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2335/2016/gmd-9-2335-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 1991-959X 1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 https://doaj.org/article/57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 9, Iss 7, Pp 2335-2355 (2016) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 2022-12-31T00:38:54Z Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Davis Strait Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Baffin Bay Geoscientific Model Development 9 7 2335 2355 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 E. M. Knudsen J. E. Walsh Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. M. Knudsen J. E. Walsh |
author_facet |
E. M. Knudsen J. E. Walsh |
author_sort |
E. M. Knudsen |
title |
Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) |
title_short |
Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) |
title_full |
Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) |
title_fullStr |
Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) |
title_sort |
northern hemisphere storminess in the norwegian earth system model (noresm1-m) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 https://doaj.org/article/57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d |
geographic |
Arctic Baffin Bay |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Baffin Bay |
genre |
Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Davis Strait Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Davis Strait Sea ice |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 9, Iss 7, Pp 2335-2355 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/2335/2016/gmd-9-2335-2016.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 1991-959X 1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 https://doaj.org/article/57031cc094ea40118ed8ae7d6c0eb70d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2335-2016 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2335 |
op_container_end_page |
2355 |
_version_ |
1766343946460463104 |