Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen ( O 2 ) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these driv...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:56b37926e452413f8f0a6bfac2cbb11d 2023-05-15T15:10:12+02:00 Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers T. L. Frölicher L. Ramseyer C. C. Raible K. B. Rodgers J. Dunne 2020-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://doaj.org/article/56b37926e452413f8f0a6bfac2cbb11d EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/56b37926e452413f8f0a6bfac2cbb11d Biogeosciences, Vol 17, Pp 2061-2083 (2020) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 2022-12-31T03:33:22Z Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen ( O 2 ) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability ( >10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O 2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O 2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with “memory” or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP ( <1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O 2 and pH increases with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to 5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Southern Ocean Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian Biogeosciences 17 7 2061 2083 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 T. L. Frölicher L. Ramseyer C. C. Raible K. B. Rodgers J. Dunne Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socioeconomic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen ( O 2 ) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modeling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability ( >10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O 2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O 2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with “memory” or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at the surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP ( <1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O 2 and pH increases with depth below the thermocline to more than 10 years, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, where predictability is also 3 to 5 years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. L. Frölicher L. Ramseyer C. C. Raible K. B. Rodgers J. Dunne |
author_facet |
T. L. Frölicher L. Ramseyer C. C. Raible K. B. Rodgers J. Dunne |
author_sort |
T. L. Frölicher |
title |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_short |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_full |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_fullStr |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
title_sort |
potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 https://doaj.org/article/56b37926e452413f8f0a6bfac2cbb11d |
geographic |
Arctic Southern Ocean Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Southern Ocean Arctic Ocean Pacific Indian |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 17, Pp 2061-2083 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2061/2020/bg-17-2061-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 1726-4170 1726-4189 https://doaj.org/article/56b37926e452413f8f0a6bfac2cbb11d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2061 |
op_container_end_page |
2083 |
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1766341248602341376 |