Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding.
Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide wit...
Published in: | PLOS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2016
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 https://doaj.org/article/562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f 2023-05-15T17:35:22+02:00 Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. Shelley A Hinsley Paul E Bellamy Ross A Hill Peter N Ferns 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 https://doaj.org/article/562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4868293?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 https://doaj.org/article/562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 5, p e0155241 (2016) Medicine R Science Q article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 2022-12-31T06:14:26Z Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Parus ENVELOPE(3.950,3.950,-71.983,-71.983) PLOS ONE 11 5 e0155241 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q Shelley A Hinsley Paul E Bellamy Ross A Hill Peter N Ferns Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Shelley A Hinsley Paul E Bellamy Ross A Hill Peter N Ferns |
author_facet |
Shelley A Hinsley Paul E Bellamy Ross A Hill Peter N Ferns |
author_sort |
Shelley A Hinsley |
title |
Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. |
title_short |
Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. |
title_full |
Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. |
title_fullStr |
Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. |
title_sort |
recent shift in climate relationship enables prediction of the timing of bird breeding. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 https://doaj.org/article/562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(3.950,3.950,-71.983,-71.983) |
geographic |
Parus |
geographic_facet |
Parus |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 5, p e0155241 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4868293?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 https://doaj.org/article/562b5bff568e49198c8d073bd79f0a3f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0155241 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
e0155241 |
_version_ |
1766134515924729856 |