Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in biospheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when forced with climate proj...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:54fb38451fa1413bb985e821c364755b 2023-05-15T15:18:28+02:00 Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation K. Nishina A. Ito D. J. Beerling P. Cadule P. Ciais D. B. Clark P. Falloon A. D. Friend R. Kahana E. Kato R. Keribin W. Lucht M. Lomas T. T. Rademacher R. Pavlick S. Schaphoff N. Vuichard L. Warszawaski T. Yokohata 2014-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 https://doaj.org/article/54fb38451fa1413bb985e821c364755b EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/197/2014/esd-5-197-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 2190-4979 2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 https://doaj.org/article/54fb38451fa1413bb985e821c364755b Earth System Dynamics, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 197-209 (2014) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 2022-12-31T03:40:20Z Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in biospheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when forced with climate projections from four representative-concentration-pathways (RCPs)-based atmospheric concentration scenarios. The goal was to specify calculated uncertainty in global SOC stock projections from global and regional perspectives and give insight to the improvement of SOC-relevant processes in biome models. SOC stocks among the biome models varied from 1090 to 2650 Pg C even in historical periods (ca. 2000). In a higher forcing scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), inconsistent estimates of impact on the total SOC (2099–2000) were obtained from different biome model simulations, ranging from a net sink of 347 Pg C to a net source of 122 Pg C. In all models, the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the RCP8.5 scenario considerably contributed to carbon accumulation in SOC. However, magnitudes varied from 93 to 264 Pg C by the end of the 21st century across biome models. Using the time-series data of total global SOC simulated by each biome model, we analyzed the sensitivity of the global SOC stock to global mean temperature and global precipitation anomalies (Δ T and Δ P respectively) in each biome model using a state-space model. This analysis suggests that Δ T explained global SOC stock changes in most models with a resolution of 1–2 °C, and the magnitude of global SOC decomposition from a 2 °C rise ranged from almost 0 to 3.53 Pg C yr −1 among the biome models. However, Δ P had a negligible impact on change in the global SOC changes. Spatial heterogeneity was evident and inconsistent among the biome models, especially in boreal to arctic regions. Our study reveals considerable climate uncertainty in SOC decomposition responses to climate and CO 2 change among biome models. Further research is required to improve our ability to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Earth System Dynamics 5 1 197 209 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
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Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 K. Nishina A. Ito D. J. Beerling P. Cadule P. Ciais D. B. Clark P. Falloon A. D. Friend R. Kahana E. Kato R. Keribin W. Lucht M. Lomas T. T. Rademacher R. Pavlick S. Schaphoff N. Vuichard L. Warszawaski T. Yokohata Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems and may play a key role in biospheric feedbacks with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in a warmer future world. We examined the simulation results of seven terrestrial biome models when forced with climate projections from four representative-concentration-pathways (RCPs)-based atmospheric concentration scenarios. The goal was to specify calculated uncertainty in global SOC stock projections from global and regional perspectives and give insight to the improvement of SOC-relevant processes in biome models. SOC stocks among the biome models varied from 1090 to 2650 Pg C even in historical periods (ca. 2000). In a higher forcing scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), inconsistent estimates of impact on the total SOC (2099–2000) were obtained from different biome model simulations, ranging from a net sink of 347 Pg C to a net source of 122 Pg C. In all models, the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration in the RCP8.5 scenario considerably contributed to carbon accumulation in SOC. However, magnitudes varied from 93 to 264 Pg C by the end of the 21st century across biome models. Using the time-series data of total global SOC simulated by each biome model, we analyzed the sensitivity of the global SOC stock to global mean temperature and global precipitation anomalies (Δ T and Δ P respectively) in each biome model using a state-space model. This analysis suggests that Δ T explained global SOC stock changes in most models with a resolution of 1–2 °C, and the magnitude of global SOC decomposition from a 2 °C rise ranged from almost 0 to 3.53 Pg C yr −1 among the biome models. However, Δ P had a negligible impact on change in the global SOC changes. Spatial heterogeneity was evident and inconsistent among the biome models, especially in boreal to arctic regions. Our study reveals considerable climate uncertainty in SOC decomposition responses to climate and CO 2 change among biome models. Further research is required to improve our ability to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
K. Nishina A. Ito D. J. Beerling P. Cadule P. Ciais D. B. Clark P. Falloon A. D. Friend R. Kahana E. Kato R. Keribin W. Lucht M. Lomas T. T. Rademacher R. Pavlick S. Schaphoff N. Vuichard L. Warszawaski T. Yokohata |
author_facet |
K. Nishina A. Ito D. J. Beerling P. Cadule P. Ciais D. B. Clark P. Falloon A. D. Friend R. Kahana E. Kato R. Keribin W. Lucht M. Lomas T. T. Rademacher R. Pavlick S. Schaphoff N. Vuichard L. Warszawaski T. Yokohata |
author_sort |
K. Nishina |
title |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_short |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_full |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
title_sort |
quantifying uncertainties in soil carbon responses to changes in global mean temperature and precipitation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 https://doaj.org/article/54fb38451fa1413bb985e821c364755b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 197-209 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/197/2014/esd-5-197-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 2190-4979 2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 https://doaj.org/article/54fb38451fa1413bb985e821c364755b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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5 |
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1 |
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197 |
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209 |
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