Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5)
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 retrospective dec...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814 2023-05-15T17:34:42+02:00 Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian 2021-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021 https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/6863/2021/gmd-14-6863-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 6863-6891 (2021) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021 2022-12-31T10:31:57Z The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 retrospective decadal forecasts (or hindcasts) is integrated for 10 years from realistic initial states once a year during 1961 to the present using prescribed external forcing. The results are part of CCCma's contribution to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) component of CMIP6. This paper evaluates CanESM5 large ensemble decadal hindcasts against observational benchmarks and against historical climate simulations initialized from pre-industrial control run states. The focus is on the evaluation of the potential predictability and actual skill of annual and multi-year averages of key oceanic and atmospheric fields at regional and global scales. The impact of initialization on prediction skill is quantified from the hindcasts decomposition into uninitialized and initialized components. The dependence of potential and actual skill on ensemble size is examined. CanESM5 decadal hindcasts skillfully predict upper-ocean states and surface climate with a significant impact from initialization that depend on climate variable, forecast range, and geographic location. Deficiencies in the skill of North Atlantic surface climate are identified and potential causes discussed. The inclusion of biogeochemical modules in CanESM5 enables the prediction of carbon cycle variables which are shown to be potentially skillful on decadal timescales, with a strong long-lasting impact from initialization on skill in the ocean and a moderate short-lived impact on land. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geoscientific Model Development 14 11 6863 6891 |
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Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Geology QE1-996.5 R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) |
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Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 retrospective decadal forecasts (or hindcasts) is integrated for 10 years from realistic initial states once a year during 1961 to the present using prescribed external forcing. The results are part of CCCma's contribution to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) component of CMIP6. This paper evaluates CanESM5 large ensemble decadal hindcasts against observational benchmarks and against historical climate simulations initialized from pre-industrial control run states. The focus is on the evaluation of the potential predictability and actual skill of annual and multi-year averages of key oceanic and atmospheric fields at regional and global scales. The impact of initialization on prediction skill is quantified from the hindcasts decomposition into uninitialized and initialized components. The dependence of potential and actual skill on ensemble size is examined. CanESM5 decadal hindcasts skillfully predict upper-ocean states and surface climate with a significant impact from initialization that depend on climate variable, forecast range, and geographic location. Deficiencies in the skill of North Atlantic surface climate are identified and potential causes discussed. The inclusion of biogeochemical modules in CanESM5 enables the prediction of carbon cycle variables which are shown to be potentially skillful on decadal timescales, with a strong long-lasting impact from initialization on skill in the ocean and a moderate short-lived impact on land. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian |
author_facet |
R. Sospedra-Alfonso W. J. Merryfield G. J. Boer V. V. Kharin W.-S. Lee C. Seiler J. R. Christian |
author_sort |
R. Sospedra-Alfonso |
title |
Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) |
title_short |
Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) |
title_full |
Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) |
title_fullStr |
Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal climate predictions with the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) |
title_sort |
decadal climate predictions with the canadian earth system model version 5 (canesm5) |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021 https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 14, Pp 6863-6891 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/6863/2021/gmd-14-6863-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/5443c824c96048488175cdafad752814 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6863-2021 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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14 |
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11 |
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6863 |
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6891 |
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