A new Frontier in electric load forecasting: The LSV/MOPA model optimized by modified orca predation algorithm

• Published in: Heliyon
• Main Authors: Guanyu Yan, Jinyu Wang, Myo Thwin
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2024
• Subjects: Electric load forecasting; Hybrid technique; Support vector regression; Long short-term memory; Modified orca predation algorithm; South Korea; Science (General); Q1-390; Social sciences (General); H1-99; Orca
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24183; https://doaj.org/article/5432bf66c2c34437a83d8b0a1fb1c666

Electric load forecasting is a vital task for energy management and policy-making. However, it is also a challenging problem due to the complex and dynamic nature of electric load data. In this paper, a novel technique, called LSV/MOPA, has been proposed for electric load forecasting. The technique is a hybrid model that combines the advantages of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), two powerful artificial intelligence algorithms. The hybrid model is further optimized by a newly Modified Orca Predation Algorithm (MOPA), which enhances the forecasting accuracy and efficiency. The LSV/MOPA model has been applied to historical electric load data from South Korea, covering four regions and 20 years. The LSV/MOPA model has been compared with other state-of-the-art forecasting techniques, including SVR/FFA, LSTM/BO, LSTM-SVR, and CNN-LSTM. The results show that the LSV/MOPA model with minimum average mean absolute percentage deviation error, including 365 in northern region, 12.8 in southern region, 8.6 in central region, and 30.8 in eastern region, provides the best fitting and outperforms the other techniques in terms of the Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation (MAPD) index, achieving lower values for all regions and years. The LSV/MOPA model also exhibits faster convergence and better generalization than the other techniques. This study demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of the LSV/MOPA model for electric load forecasting and suggests its potential applications in other sectors where accurate forecasting is crucial.