LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?

Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling I...

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Published in:Climate of the Past
Main Authors: K. Saito, T. Sueyoshi, S. Marchenko, V. Romanovsky, B. Otto-Bliesner, J. Walsh, N. Bigelow, A. Hendricks, K. Yoshikawa
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2013
Subjects:
Kya
Ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013
https://doaj.org/article/52e45c5b14554c18bc74d3b9bd453efb
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:52e45c5b14554c18bc74d3b9bd453efb 2023-05-15T16:37:31+02:00 LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction? K. Saito T. Sueyoshi S. Marchenko V. Romanovsky B. Otto-Bliesner J. Walsh N. Bigelow A. Hendricks K. Yoshikawa 2013-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013 https://doaj.org/article/52e45c5b14554c18bc74d3b9bd453efb EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/9/1697/2013/cp-9-1697-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/52e45c5b14554c18bc74d3b9bd453efb Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 1697-1714 (2013) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013 2022-12-31T02:26:52Z Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) and the LGM (21 kya). This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect) method was 26.0 (17.7) million km 2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2) million km 2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6) million km 2 to 18.1 (16.0) million km 2 . These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble – improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology – also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Kya ENVELOPE(8.308,8.308,63.772,63.772) Climate of the Past 9 4 1697 1714
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Environmental pollution
TD172-193.5
Environmental protection
TD169-171.8
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
spellingShingle Environmental pollution
TD172-193.5
Environmental protection
TD169-171.8
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
K. Saito
T. Sueyoshi
S. Marchenko
V. Romanovsky
B. Otto-Bliesner
J. Walsh
N. Bigelow
A. Hendricks
K. Yoshikawa
LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
topic_facet Environmental pollution
TD172-193.5
Environmental protection
TD169-171.8
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
description Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) and the LGM (21 kya). This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect) method was 26.0 (17.7) million km 2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2) million km 2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6) million km 2 to 18.1 (16.0) million km 2 . These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble – improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology – also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author K. Saito
T. Sueyoshi
S. Marchenko
V. Romanovsky
B. Otto-Bliesner
J. Walsh
N. Bigelow
A. Hendricks
K. Yoshikawa
author_facet K. Saito
T. Sueyoshi
S. Marchenko
V. Romanovsky
B. Otto-Bliesner
J. Walsh
N. Bigelow
A. Hendricks
K. Yoshikawa
author_sort K. Saito
title LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
title_short LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
title_full LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
title_fullStr LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
title_full_unstemmed LGM permafrost distribution: how well can the latest PMIP multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
title_sort lgm permafrost distribution: how well can the latest pmip multi-model ensembles perform reconstruction?
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2013
url https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013
https://doaj.org/article/52e45c5b14554c18bc74d3b9bd453efb
long_lat ENVELOPE(8.308,8.308,63.772,63.772)
geographic Kya
geographic_facet Kya
genre Ice
permafrost
genre_facet Ice
permafrost
op_source Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 1697-1714 (2013)
op_relation http://www.clim-past.net/9/1697/2013/cp-9-1697-2013.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324
https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332
doi:10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013
1814-9324
1814-9332
https://doaj.org/article/52e45c5b14554c18bc74d3b9bd453efb
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1697-2013
container_title Climate of the Past
container_volume 9
container_issue 4
container_start_page 1697
op_container_end_page 1714
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