Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful?

Abstract The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Benjamin C. Trabing, Andrew B. Penny, Jonathan Martinez, Cody Fritz
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
tropical cyclone
radius of maximum winds
HAFS
numerical weather prediction models
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109663
https://doaj.org/article/52c69790b80e45cf9bdcc698da1db5a1
Description
Summary:Abstract The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off the National Hurricane Center official forecast is conducted relative to a new baseline climatology to better understand whether models have skill in forecasting the RMW of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. On average, the HAFS models are less skillful than the climatology and persistence baseline and two statistically derived RMW estimates. The performance of the HAFS models is dependent on intensity with better skill for stronger tropical cyclones compared to weaker tropical cyclones. To further improve guidance of tropical cyclone hazards, more work needs to be done to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone structure.

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