Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska
Regions in high latitudes are experiencing greater climate change than other regions. In this study, the impact of temperature and precipitation on the yield of fifteen cultivars (eight barley [Hordeum vulgare], four oat [Avena sativa], and three wheat [Triticum aestivum]) from a small grain field e...
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2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:52574ed2207646ba9c15f4ca92c824d2 2023-05-15T14:14:35+02:00 Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska Mingyuan Cheng Mingchu Zhang Robert M. Van Veldhuizen Charles W. Knight 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 https://doaj.org/article/52574ed2207646ba9c15f4ca92c824d2 EN eng Taylor & Francis Group https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 1938-4246 1523-0430 https://doaj.org/article/52574ed2207646ba9c15f4ca92c824d2 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 54, Iss 1, Pp 386-394 (2022) Climate change yield loss barley oat wheat Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 2022-12-30T20:06:29Z Regions in high latitudes are experiencing greater climate change than other regions. In this study, the impact of temperature and precipitation on the yield of fifteen cultivars (eight barley [Hordeum vulgare], four oat [Avena sativa], and three wheat [Triticum aestivum]) from a small grain field experiment in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska, from 1978 to 2018 were analyzed to evaluate their sensitivity to variation in climate that occurred during this period. Using first-difference time series of log yield change and the changes of determinant weather (maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) as variables, linear regression and Bayesian simulation models were fitted for analysis. Results showed that of fifteen cultivars, two barley and one wheat had a consistent yield reduction (p < .05) in both locations over the test period. The remaining cultivars, though they experienced a yield reduction, the degree of the change varied by individual cultivar depending on the location (from −10.3 to 4.1 percent). For impact of temperature and precipitation, the majority of cultivars of three small grains decreased in yield (2.4–22.5 percent per degree) with elevated temperature but increased in yield (2.4–6.0 percent per centimeter) with higher precipitation. Over the growing season, increased temperatures and reduced total precipitation in June and July reduced the yields of cultivars. The results suggest that cultivar response to climate change differed by location. Nevertheless, elevated temperature and lower precipitation appear to be the variables causing a decrease in yield. Therefore, selection of cultivars under climate change scenarios in different locations is imperative, and this study provides insight for future small grain cultivar selections in Alaska. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Fairbanks Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 54 1 386 394 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change yield loss barley oat wheat Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate change yield loss barley oat wheat Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Mingyuan Cheng Mingchu Zhang Robert M. Van Veldhuizen Charles W. Knight Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska |
topic_facet |
Climate change yield loss barley oat wheat Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Regions in high latitudes are experiencing greater climate change than other regions. In this study, the impact of temperature and precipitation on the yield of fifteen cultivars (eight barley [Hordeum vulgare], four oat [Avena sativa], and three wheat [Triticum aestivum]) from a small grain field experiment in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska, from 1978 to 2018 were analyzed to evaluate their sensitivity to variation in climate that occurred during this period. Using first-difference time series of log yield change and the changes of determinant weather (maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) as variables, linear regression and Bayesian simulation models were fitted for analysis. Results showed that of fifteen cultivars, two barley and one wheat had a consistent yield reduction (p < .05) in both locations over the test period. The remaining cultivars, though they experienced a yield reduction, the degree of the change varied by individual cultivar depending on the location (from −10.3 to 4.1 percent). For impact of temperature and precipitation, the majority of cultivars of three small grains decreased in yield (2.4–22.5 percent per degree) with elevated temperature but increased in yield (2.4–6.0 percent per centimeter) with higher precipitation. Over the growing season, increased temperatures and reduced total precipitation in June and July reduced the yields of cultivars. The results suggest that cultivar response to climate change differed by location. Nevertheless, elevated temperature and lower precipitation appear to be the variables causing a decrease in yield. Therefore, selection of cultivars under climate change scenarios in different locations is imperative, and this study provides insight for future small grain cultivar selections in Alaska. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mingyuan Cheng Mingchu Zhang Robert M. Van Veldhuizen Charles W. Knight |
author_facet |
Mingyuan Cheng Mingchu Zhang Robert M. Van Veldhuizen Charles W. Knight |
author_sort |
Mingyuan Cheng |
title |
Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska |
title_short |
Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska |
title_full |
Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska |
title_fullStr |
Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska |
title_sort |
temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in fairbanks and delta junction, alaska |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 https://doaj.org/article/52574ed2207646ba9c15f4ca92c824d2 |
geographic |
Fairbanks |
geographic_facet |
Fairbanks |
genre |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Alaska |
genre_facet |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Alaska |
op_source |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 54, Iss 1, Pp 386-394 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 1938-4246 1523-0430 https://doaj.org/article/52574ed2207646ba9c15f4ca92c824d2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2022.2109785 |
container_title |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
container_volume |
54 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
386 |
op_container_end_page |
394 |
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1766286971535097856 |