Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty
Abstract Arctic Amplification (AA) exhibits a distinct seasonal dependence; it is weakest in boreal summer and strongest in winter. Here, we analyze simulations from single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to decipher the seasonal evolution of...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/article/5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e 2024-09-15T18:02:10+00:00 Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty You‐Ting Wu Yu‐Chiao Liang Yan‐Ning Kuo Flavio Lehner Michael Previdi Lorenzo M. Polvani Min‐Hui Lo Chia‐Wei Lan 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/article/5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/article/5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract Arctic Amplification (AA) exhibits a distinct seasonal dependence; it is weakest in boreal summer and strongest in winter. Here, we analyze simulations from single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to decipher the seasonal evolution of Arctic climate change. Models agree that the annual maximum AA shifts from autumn into winter over the 21st century, accompanied by similar shifts in sea‐ice loss and surface turbulent heat fluxes, whereas the maximum precipitation shifts only into late autumn. However, the exact seasonal timing and magnitude of these shifts are highly uncertain. Decomposing the uncertainty into model structural differences, emission scenarios, and internal variability reveals that model differences dominate the total uncertainty, which also undergo autumn‐to‐winter shifts. We also find that the scenario uncertainty is unimportant for projections of AA. These results highlight that understanding model differences is critical to reducing uncertainty in projected Arctic climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geophysical Research Letters 50 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 You‐Ting Wu Yu‐Chiao Liang Yan‐Ning Kuo Flavio Lehner Michael Previdi Lorenzo M. Polvani Min‐Hui Lo Chia‐Wei Lan Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty |
topic_facet |
Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract Arctic Amplification (AA) exhibits a distinct seasonal dependence; it is weakest in boreal summer and strongest in winter. Here, we analyze simulations from single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to decipher the seasonal evolution of Arctic climate change. Models agree that the annual maximum AA shifts from autumn into winter over the 21st century, accompanied by similar shifts in sea‐ice loss and surface turbulent heat fluxes, whereas the maximum precipitation shifts only into late autumn. However, the exact seasonal timing and magnitude of these shifts are highly uncertain. Decomposing the uncertainty into model structural differences, emission scenarios, and internal variability reveals that model differences dominate the total uncertainty, which also undergo autumn‐to‐winter shifts. We also find that the scenario uncertainty is unimportant for projections of AA. These results highlight that understanding model differences is critical to reducing uncertainty in projected Arctic climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
You‐Ting Wu Yu‐Chiao Liang Yan‐Ning Kuo Flavio Lehner Michael Previdi Lorenzo M. Polvani Min‐Hui Lo Chia‐Wei Lan |
author_facet |
You‐Ting Wu Yu‐Chiao Liang Yan‐Ning Kuo Flavio Lehner Michael Previdi Lorenzo M. Polvani Min‐Hui Lo Chia‐Wei Lan |
author_sort |
You‐Ting Wu |
title |
Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty |
title_short |
Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty |
title_full |
Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty |
title_sort |
exploiting smiles and the cmip5 archive to understand arctic climate change seasonality and uncertainty |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/article/5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e |
genre |
Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL100745 https://doaj.org/article/5155281f068b4fbc8bbc38924fd46a8e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100745 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1810439470263042048 |