Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records
The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic sh...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:508669a61bb44f90a1dbc039c32ef4cd 2023-05-15T14:04:38+02:00 Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records H.-J. Lüdecke A. Hempelmann C. O. Weiss 2013-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 https://doaj.org/article/508669a61bb44f90a1dbc039c32ef4cd EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/508669a61bb44f90a1dbc039c32ef4cd Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 447-452 (2013) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 2022-12-30T21:45:57Z The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r = 0.961. This good agreement has a > 99.9% confidence level confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Climate of the Past 9 1 447 452 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 H.-J. Lüdecke A. Hempelmann C. O. Weiss Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757 AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r = 0.961. This good agreement has a > 99.9% confidence level confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H.-J. Lüdecke A. Hempelmann C. O. Weiss |
author_facet |
H.-J. Lüdecke A. Hempelmann C. O. Weiss |
author_sort |
H.-J. Lüdecke |
title |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_short |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_full |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_fullStr |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
title_sort |
multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 https://doaj.org/article/508669a61bb44f90a1dbc039c32ef4cd |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 447-452 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/9/447/2013/cp-9-447-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/508669a61bb44f90a1dbc039c32ef4cd |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-447-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
447 |
op_container_end_page |
452 |
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1766275839040684032 |