Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives
Abstract Wildlife management often involves trade‐offs between protecting species and allowing human activities and development. Ideally, these decisions are guided by scientific studies that quantify the impacts of proposed actions on the environment. However, critical information to assess impacts...
Published in: | Ecosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/article/4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a 2023-05-15T15:13:53+02:00 Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives Timothy J. Fullman Benjamin K. Sullender Matthew D. Cameron Kyle Joly 2021-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/article/4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/toc/2150-8925 2150-8925 doi:10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/article/4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a Ecosphere, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2021) Alaska arctic brant caribou disturbance infrastructure Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 2022-12-31T08:58:25Z Abstract Wildlife management often involves trade‐offs between protecting species and allowing human activities and development. Ideally, these decisions are guided by scientific studies that quantify the impacts of proposed actions on the environment. However, critical information to assess impacts of proposed activities may be lacking, such as certainty in where actions will take place, which may hinder a robust impact assessment. To address this issue, we present the Development Impacts Analysis (DIA), which employs Monte Carlo simulation modeling to quantify the environmental consequences of proposed development scenarios, while accounting for uncertainty in the exact location of future development. We applied the DIA to five proposed oil leasing management scenarios under a revised management plan for the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska. For each management scenario with differing levels of proposed development (“alternatives”), oil production pads and roads were randomly simulated in proportion to estimated undiscovered oil and following alternative‐specific restrictions. We assessed habitat displacement for two caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds, eight shorebird species, and black brant (Branta bernicla) based on reported responses to development, repeating the process 100 times for each alternative. Some habitat loss was reported for each proposed alternative, but the amount of impact varied by alternative and species. One caribou herd and most bird species indicated greatest effects in the alternative with the least restrictions on development and lesser impacts under more protective alternatives. Our results emphasized the importance of considering spatial variation in development effects and species‐specific differences when evaluating management proposals. The DIA quantified potential impacts on a suite of species under proposed management alternatives, while accounting for uncertainty in where development will occur and providing confidence intervals on estimated impacts. This illustrates that ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Branta bernicla Rangifer tarandus Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Brant ENVELOPE(7.105,7.105,62.917,62.917) Ecosphere 12 5 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Alaska arctic brant caribou disturbance infrastructure Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Alaska arctic brant caribou disturbance infrastructure Ecology QH540-549.5 Timothy J. Fullman Benjamin K. Sullender Matthew D. Cameron Kyle Joly Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
topic_facet |
Alaska arctic brant caribou disturbance infrastructure Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Wildlife management often involves trade‐offs between protecting species and allowing human activities and development. Ideally, these decisions are guided by scientific studies that quantify the impacts of proposed actions on the environment. However, critical information to assess impacts of proposed activities may be lacking, such as certainty in where actions will take place, which may hinder a robust impact assessment. To address this issue, we present the Development Impacts Analysis (DIA), which employs Monte Carlo simulation modeling to quantify the environmental consequences of proposed development scenarios, while accounting for uncertainty in the exact location of future development. We applied the DIA to five proposed oil leasing management scenarios under a revised management plan for the National Petroleum Reserve—Alaska. For each management scenario with differing levels of proposed development (“alternatives”), oil production pads and roads were randomly simulated in proportion to estimated undiscovered oil and following alternative‐specific restrictions. We assessed habitat displacement for two caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds, eight shorebird species, and black brant (Branta bernicla) based on reported responses to development, repeating the process 100 times for each alternative. Some habitat loss was reported for each proposed alternative, but the amount of impact varied by alternative and species. One caribou herd and most bird species indicated greatest effects in the alternative with the least restrictions on development and lesser impacts under more protective alternatives. Our results emphasized the importance of considering spatial variation in development effects and species‐specific differences when evaluating management proposals. The DIA quantified potential impacts on a suite of species under proposed management alternatives, while accounting for uncertainty in where development will occur and providing confidence intervals on estimated impacts. This illustrates that ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Timothy J. Fullman Benjamin K. Sullender Matthew D. Cameron Kyle Joly |
author_facet |
Timothy J. Fullman Benjamin K. Sullender Matthew D. Cameron Kyle Joly |
author_sort |
Timothy J. Fullman |
title |
Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
title_short |
Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
title_full |
Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
title_fullStr |
Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
title_sort |
simulation modeling accounts for uncertainty while quantifying ecological effects of development alternatives |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/article/4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(7.105,7.105,62.917,62.917) |
geographic |
Arctic Brant |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Brant |
genre |
Arctic Branta bernicla Rangifer tarandus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Branta bernicla Rangifer tarandus Alaska |
op_source |
Ecosphere, Vol 12, Iss 5, Pp n/a-n/a (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/toc/2150-8925 2150-8925 doi:10.1002/ecs2.3530 https://doaj.org/article/4febeb2de7264b55868637e002fe9b0a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3530 |
container_title |
Ecosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
5 |
_version_ |
1766344407302275072 |