Do climate changes alter the distribution and transmission of malaria? Evidence assessment and recommendations for future studies

• Published in: Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
• Main Authors: Wilsandrei Cella, Djane Clarys Baia-da-Silva, Gisely Cardoso de Melo, Wanderli Pedro Tadei, Vanderson de Souza Sampaio, Paulo Pimenta, Marcus Vinicius Guimarães Lacerda, Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) 2019
• Subjects: Climate changes; Malaria; Infectious diseases; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0308-2019; https://doaj.org/article/4fa24c7414a84da883fc6bf9d32d2348

Abstract Malaria, a mosquito-borne infectious disease, is considered a significant global health burden. Climate changes or different weather conditions may impact infectious diseases, specifically those transmitted by insect vectors and contaminated water. Based on the current predictions for climate change associated with the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and the increase in atmospheric temperature, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that in 2050, malaria may threaten some previously unexposed areas worldwide and cause a 50% higher probability of malaria cases. Climate-based distribution models of malaria depict an increase in the geographic distribution of the disease as global environmental temperatures and conditions worsen. Researchers have studied the influence of changes in climate on the prevalence of malaria using different mathematical models that consider different variables and predict the conditions for malaria distribution. In this context, we conducted a mini-review to elucidate the important aspects described in the literature on the influence of climate change in the distribution and transmission of malaria. It is important to develop possible risk management strategies and enhance the surveillance system enhanced even in currently malaria-free areas predicted to experience malaria in the future.