Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America.
Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a mosquito-borne Alphavirus that is widespread in South America. MAYV infection often presents with non-specific febrile symptoms but may progress to debilitating chronic arthritis or arthralgia. Despite the pandemic threat of MAYV, its true distribution remains unknown. The o...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4ec73f4dc6104aee967031edb7921ecd 2024-09-09T19:28:01+00:00 Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. Michael Celone Sean Beeman Barbara A Han Alexander M Potter David B Pecor Bernard Okech Simon Pollett 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859 https://doaj.org/article/4ec73f4dc6104aee967031edb7921ecd EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859&type=printable https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859 https://doaj.org/article/4ec73f4dc6104aee967031edb7921ecd PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 18, Iss 1, p e0011859 (2024) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859 2024-08-05T17:50:02Z Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a mosquito-borne Alphavirus that is widespread in South America. MAYV infection often presents with non-specific febrile symptoms but may progress to debilitating chronic arthritis or arthralgia. Despite the pandemic threat of MAYV, its true distribution remains unknown. The objective of this study was to clarify the geographic distribution of MAYV using an established risk mapping framework. This consisted of generating evidence consensus scores for MAYV presence, modeling the potential distribution of MAYV in select countries across Central and South America, and estimating the population residing in areas suitable for MAYV transmission. We compiled a georeferenced compendium of MAYV occurrence in humans, animals, and arthropods. Based on an established evidence consensus framework, we integrated multiple information sources to assess the total evidence supporting ongoing transmission of MAYV within each country in our study region. We then developed high resolution maps of the disease's estimated distribution using a boosted regression tree approach. Models were developed using nine climatic and environmental covariates that are related to the MAYV transmission cycle. Using the output of our boosted regression tree models, we estimated the total population living in regions suitable for MAYV transmission. The evidence consensus scores revealed high or very high evidence of MAYV transmission in several countries including Brazil (especially the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás), Venezuela, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and French Guiana. According to the boosted regression tree models, a substantial region of South America is suitable for MAYV transmission, including north and central Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname. Some regions (e.g., Guyana) with only moderate evidence of known transmission were identified as highly suitable for MAYV. We estimate that approximately 58.9 million people (95% CI: 21.4-100.4) in Central and South America live in areas that may be suitable for MAYV ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Trinidad ENVELOPE(-60.734,-60.734,-63.816,-63.816) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18 1 e0011859 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Michael Celone Sean Beeman Barbara A Han Alexander M Potter David B Pecor Bernard Okech Simon Pollett Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a mosquito-borne Alphavirus that is widespread in South America. MAYV infection often presents with non-specific febrile symptoms but may progress to debilitating chronic arthritis or arthralgia. Despite the pandemic threat of MAYV, its true distribution remains unknown. The objective of this study was to clarify the geographic distribution of MAYV using an established risk mapping framework. This consisted of generating evidence consensus scores for MAYV presence, modeling the potential distribution of MAYV in select countries across Central and South America, and estimating the population residing in areas suitable for MAYV transmission. We compiled a georeferenced compendium of MAYV occurrence in humans, animals, and arthropods. Based on an established evidence consensus framework, we integrated multiple information sources to assess the total evidence supporting ongoing transmission of MAYV within each country in our study region. We then developed high resolution maps of the disease's estimated distribution using a boosted regression tree approach. Models were developed using nine climatic and environmental covariates that are related to the MAYV transmission cycle. Using the output of our boosted regression tree models, we estimated the total population living in regions suitable for MAYV transmission. The evidence consensus scores revealed high or very high evidence of MAYV transmission in several countries including Brazil (especially the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás), Venezuela, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and French Guiana. According to the boosted regression tree models, a substantial region of South America is suitable for MAYV transmission, including north and central Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname. Some regions (e.g., Guyana) with only moderate evidence of known transmission were identified as highly suitable for MAYV. We estimate that approximately 58.9 million people (95% CI: 21.4-100.4) in Central and South America live in areas that may be suitable for MAYV ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Michael Celone Sean Beeman Barbara A Han Alexander M Potter David B Pecor Bernard Okech Simon Pollett |
author_facet |
Michael Celone Sean Beeman Barbara A Han Alexander M Potter David B Pecor Bernard Okech Simon Pollett |
author_sort |
Michael Celone |
title |
Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. |
title_short |
Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. |
title_full |
Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. |
title_fullStr |
Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. |
title_sort |
understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for mayaro virus in central and south america. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859 https://doaj.org/article/4ec73f4dc6104aee967031edb7921ecd |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-60.734,-60.734,-63.816,-63.816) |
geographic |
Arctic Trinidad |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Trinidad |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 18, Iss 1, p e0011859 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859&type=printable https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859 https://doaj.org/article/4ec73f4dc6104aee967031edb7921ecd |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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18 |
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e0011859 |
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