Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability
An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model"...
Published in: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4ebe3c2ce86345e2bbd97571f010177c 2023-05-15T14:29:19+02:00 Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability A. Gelfan V. A. Semenov E. Gusev Y. Motovilov O. Nasonova I. Krylenko E. Kovalev 2015-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 https://doaj.org/article/4ebe3c2ce86345e2bbd97571f010177c EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/2737/2015/hess-19-2737-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938 1027-5606 1607-7938 doi:10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 https://doaj.org/article/4ebe3c2ce86345e2bbd97571f010177c Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 19, Iss 6, Pp 2737-2754 (2015) Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 2022-12-31T03:37:15Z An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of internal atmospheric variability is most visible over spatio-temporal scales of water management in large river basins. Internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. Ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of bias-corrected ECHAM5 outputs and ensemble averaged ECHAM5 output are used as a distributed input for the ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the standard deviation of annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as annual runoff trend, are assessed. Uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that uncertainty of the mean and the standard deviation of runoff has a significant seasonal dependence on the maximum during the periods of spring–summer snowmelt and summer–autumn rainfall floods. Noticeable nonlinearity of the hydrological models' results in the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvina River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters the stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. Simulated discharge trends are close to normally distributed around the ensemble mean value, which fits well to empirical ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Basin Arctic Climate change dvina Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19 6 2737 2754 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 A. Gelfan V. A. Semenov E. Gusev Y. Motovilov O. Nasonova I. Krylenko E. Kovalev Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
topic_facet |
Technology T Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties). Importantly, the role of internal atmospheric variability is most visible over spatio-temporal scales of water management in large river basins. Internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members) with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. Ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012) and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of bias-corrected ECHAM5 outputs and ensemble averaged ECHAM5 output are used as a distributed input for the ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the standard deviation of annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as annual runoff trend, are assessed. Uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that uncertainty of the mean and the standard deviation of runoff has a significant seasonal dependence on the maximum during the periods of spring–summer snowmelt and summer–autumn rainfall floods. Noticeable nonlinearity of the hydrological models' results in the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvina River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters the stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. Simulated discharge trends are close to normally distributed around the ensemble mean value, which fits well to empirical ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Gelfan V. A. Semenov E. Gusev Y. Motovilov O. Nasonova I. Krylenko E. Kovalev |
author_facet |
A. Gelfan V. A. Semenov E. Gusev Y. Motovilov O. Nasonova I. Krylenko E. Kovalev |
author_sort |
A. Gelfan |
title |
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
title_short |
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
title_full |
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
title_fullStr |
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
title_sort |
large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 https://doaj.org/article/4ebe3c2ce86345e2bbd97571f010177c |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Basin Arctic Climate change dvina Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Basin Arctic Climate change dvina Sea ice |
op_source |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol 19, Iss 6, Pp 2737-2754 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/2737/2015/hess-19-2737-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1027-5606 https://doaj.org/toc/1607-7938 1027-5606 1607-7938 doi:10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 https://doaj.org/article/4ebe3c2ce86345e2bbd97571f010177c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2737 |
op_container_end_page |
2754 |
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1766303363536781312 |