The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marin...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: H. Goelzer, S. Nowicki, A. Payne, E. Larour, H. Seroussi, W. H. Lipscomb, J. Gregory, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. Shepherd, E. Simon, C. Agosta, P. Alexander, A. Aschwanden, A. Barthel, R. Calov, C. Chambers, Y. Choi, J. Cuzzone, C. Dumas, T. Edwards, D. Felikson, X. Fettweis, N. R. Golledge, R. Greve, A. Humbert, P. Huybrechts, S. Le clec'h, V. Lee, G. Leguy, C. Little, D. P. Lowry, M. Morlighem, I. Nias, A. Quiquet, M. Rückamp, N.-J. Schlegel, D. A. Slater, R. S. Smith, F. Straneo, L. Tarasov
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
https://doaj.org/article/4e7d26cfc9c24298ab5dbb898eee024b
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4e7d26cfc9c24298ab5dbb898eee024b 2023-05-15T15:16:19+02:00 The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 H. Goelzer S. Nowicki A. Payne E. Larour H. Seroussi W. H. Lipscomb J. Gregory A. Abe-Ouchi A. Shepherd E. Simon C. Agosta P. Alexander A. Aschwanden A. Barthel R. Calov C. Chambers Y. Choi J. Cuzzone C. Dumas T. Edwards D. Felikson X. Fettweis N. R. Golledge R. Greve A. Humbert P. Huybrechts S. Le clec'h V. Lee G. Leguy C. Little D. P. Lowry M. Morlighem I. Nias A. Quiquet M. Rückamp N.-J. Schlegel D. A. Slater R. S. Smith F. Straneo L. Tarasov 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 https://doaj.org/article/4e7d26cfc9c24298ab5dbb898eee024b EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3071/2020/tc-14-3071-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/4e7d26cfc9c24298ab5dbb898eee024b The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3071-3096 (2020) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 2022-12-30T23:08:09Z The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Greenland The Cryosphere 14 9 3071 3096
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
spellingShingle Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
H. Goelzer
S. Nowicki
A. Payne
E. Larour
H. Seroussi
W. H. Lipscomb
J. Gregory
A. Abe-Ouchi
A. Shepherd
E. Simon
C. Agosta
P. Alexander
A. Aschwanden
A. Barthel
R. Calov
C. Chambers
Y. Choi
J. Cuzzone
C. Dumas
T. Edwards
D. Felikson
X. Fettweis
N. R. Golledge
R. Greve
A. Humbert
P. Huybrechts
S. Le clec'h
V. Lee
G. Leguy
C. Little
D. P. Lowry
M. Morlighem
I. Nias
A. Quiquet
M. Rückamp
N.-J. Schlegel
D. A. Slater
R. S. Smith
F. Straneo
L. Tarasov
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
topic_facet Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
description The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90±50 and 32±17 mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author H. Goelzer
S. Nowicki
A. Payne
E. Larour
H. Seroussi
W. H. Lipscomb
J. Gregory
A. Abe-Ouchi
A. Shepherd
E. Simon
C. Agosta
P. Alexander
A. Aschwanden
A. Barthel
R. Calov
C. Chambers
Y. Choi
J. Cuzzone
C. Dumas
T. Edwards
D. Felikson
X. Fettweis
N. R. Golledge
R. Greve
A. Humbert
P. Huybrechts
S. Le clec'h
V. Lee
G. Leguy
C. Little
D. P. Lowry
M. Morlighem
I. Nias
A. Quiquet
M. Rückamp
N.-J. Schlegel
D. A. Slater
R. S. Smith
F. Straneo
L. Tarasov
author_facet H. Goelzer
S. Nowicki
A. Payne
E. Larour
H. Seroussi
W. H. Lipscomb
J. Gregory
A. Abe-Ouchi
A. Shepherd
E. Simon
C. Agosta
P. Alexander
A. Aschwanden
A. Barthel
R. Calov
C. Chambers
Y. Choi
J. Cuzzone
C. Dumas
T. Edwards
D. Felikson
X. Fettweis
N. R. Golledge
R. Greve
A. Humbert
P. Huybrechts
S. Le clec'h
V. Lee
G. Leguy
C. Little
D. P. Lowry
M. Morlighem
I. Nias
A. Quiquet
M. Rückamp
N.-J. Schlegel
D. A. Slater
R. S. Smith
F. Straneo
L. Tarasov
author_sort H. Goelzer
title The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_short The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_full The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_fullStr The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_full_unstemmed The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6
title_sort future sea-level contribution of the greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ismip6
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2020
url https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
https://doaj.org/article/4e7d26cfc9c24298ab5dbb898eee024b
geographic Arctic
Greenland
geographic_facet Arctic
Greenland
genre Arctic
Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
genre_facet Arctic
Greenland
Ice Sheet
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3071-3096 (2020)
op_relation https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3071/2020/tc-14-3071-2020.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424
doi:10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
1994-0416
1994-0424
https://doaj.org/article/4e7d26cfc9c24298ab5dbb898eee024b
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 14
container_issue 9
container_start_page 3071
op_container_end_page 3096
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