Saltwater intrusion and human health risks for coastal populations under 2050 climate scenarios

• Published in: Scientific Reports
• Main Authors: William Mueller, Daniel Zamrsky, Gualbert Oude Essink, Lora E. Fleming, Aniruddha Deshpande, Konstantinos C. Makris, Benedict W. Wheeler, John N. Newton, K. M. Venkat Narayan, Abu Mohd Naser, Matthew O. Gribble
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2024
• Subjects: Climate change; Salinity; Low- and middle-income countries; Sea level rise; Medicine; R; Science; Q; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-66956-4; https://doaj.org/article/4da69187d16a4e2aba84f77d6741da48

Abstract Populations consuming saline drinking water are at greater risk of high blood pressure and potentially other adverse health outcomes. We modelled data and used available datasets to identify countries of higher vulnerability to future saltwater intrusion associated with climate change in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. We developed three vulnerability criteria to capture geographies with: (1) any coastal areas with projected inland saltwater intrusion of ≥ 1 km inland, (2) > 50% of the population in coastal secondary administrative areas with reliance on groundwater for drinking water, and 3) high national average sodium urinary excretion (i.e., > 3 g/day). We identified 41 nations across all continents (except Antarctica) with ≥ 1 km of inland saltwater intrusion by 2050. Seven low- and middle-income countries of higher vulnerability were all concentrated in South/Southeast Asia. Based on these initial findings, future research should study geological nuances at the local level in higher-risk areas and co-produce with local communities contextually appropriate solutions to secure equitable access to clean drinking water.