Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web
Recent observations of record low winter sea-ice coverage and warming water temperatures in the eastern Bering Sea have signaled the potential impacts of climate change on this ecosystem, which have implications for commercial fisheries production. We investigate the impacts of forecasted climate ch...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 https://doaj.org/article/4d916901177a4b0aba5d50252b91c246 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4d916901177a4b0aba5d50252b91c246 2023-05-15T15:43:21+02:00 Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web George A. Whitehouse Kerim Y. Aydin Anne B. Hollowed Kirstin K. Holsman Wei Cheng Amanda Faig Alan C. Haynie Albert J. Hermann Kelly A. Kearney André E. Punt Timothy E. Essington 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 https://doaj.org/article/4d916901177a4b0aba5d50252b91c246 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 https://doaj.org/article/4d916901177a4b0aba5d50252b91c246 Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) Bering Sea climate change fisheries food web Rpath Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 2022-12-31T07:54:08Z Recent observations of record low winter sea-ice coverage and warming water temperatures in the eastern Bering Sea have signaled the potential impacts of climate change on this ecosystem, which have implications for commercial fisheries production. We investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change on the eastern Bering Sea food web through the end of the century under medium- and high-emissions climate scenarios in combination with a selection of fisheries management strategies by conducting simulations using a dynamic food web model. The outputs from three global earth system models run under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled using a regional ocean and biogeochemical model to project ecosystem dynamics at the base of the food web. Four fishing scenarios were explored: status quo, no fishing, and two scenarios that alternatively assume increased fishing emphasis on either gadids or flatfishes. Annual fishery quotas were dynamically simulated by combining harvest control rules based on model-simulated stock biomass, while incorporating social and economic tradeoffs induced by the Bering Sea’s combined groundfish harvest cap. There was little predicted difference between the status quo and no fishing scenario for most managed groundfish species biomasses at the end of the century, regardless of emission scenario. Under the status quo fishing scenario, biomass projections for most species and functional groups across trophic levels showed a slow but steady decline toward the end of the century, and most groups were near or below recent historical (1991–2017) biomass levels by 2080. The bottom–up effects of declines in biomass at lower trophic levels as forecasted by the climate-enhanced lower trophic level modeling, drove the biomass trends at higher trophic levels. By 2080, the biomass projections for species and trophic guilds showed very little difference between emission scenarios. Our method for climate-enhanced food web projections can support fisheries managers by ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Bering Sea Frontiers in Marine Science 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Bering Sea climate change fisheries food web Rpath Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Bering Sea climate change fisheries food web Rpath Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 George A. Whitehouse Kerim Y. Aydin Anne B. Hollowed Kirstin K. Holsman Wei Cheng Amanda Faig Alan C. Haynie Albert J. Hermann Kelly A. Kearney André E. Punt Timothy E. Essington Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web |
topic_facet |
Bering Sea climate change fisheries food web Rpath Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Recent observations of record low winter sea-ice coverage and warming water temperatures in the eastern Bering Sea have signaled the potential impacts of climate change on this ecosystem, which have implications for commercial fisheries production. We investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change on the eastern Bering Sea food web through the end of the century under medium- and high-emissions climate scenarios in combination with a selection of fisheries management strategies by conducting simulations using a dynamic food web model. The outputs from three global earth system models run under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled using a regional ocean and biogeochemical model to project ecosystem dynamics at the base of the food web. Four fishing scenarios were explored: status quo, no fishing, and two scenarios that alternatively assume increased fishing emphasis on either gadids or flatfishes. Annual fishery quotas were dynamically simulated by combining harvest control rules based on model-simulated stock biomass, while incorporating social and economic tradeoffs induced by the Bering Sea’s combined groundfish harvest cap. There was little predicted difference between the status quo and no fishing scenario for most managed groundfish species biomasses at the end of the century, regardless of emission scenario. Under the status quo fishing scenario, biomass projections for most species and functional groups across trophic levels showed a slow but steady decline toward the end of the century, and most groups were near or below recent historical (1991–2017) biomass levels by 2080. The bottom–up effects of declines in biomass at lower trophic levels as forecasted by the climate-enhanced lower trophic level modeling, drove the biomass trends at higher trophic levels. By 2080, the biomass projections for species and trophic guilds showed very little difference between emission scenarios. Our method for climate-enhanced food web projections can support fisheries managers by ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
George A. Whitehouse Kerim Y. Aydin Anne B. Hollowed Kirstin K. Holsman Wei Cheng Amanda Faig Alan C. Haynie Albert J. Hermann Kelly A. Kearney André E. Punt Timothy E. Essington |
author_facet |
George A. Whitehouse Kerim Y. Aydin Anne B. Hollowed Kirstin K. Holsman Wei Cheng Amanda Faig Alan C. Haynie Albert J. Hermann Kelly A. Kearney André E. Punt Timothy E. Essington |
author_sort |
George A. Whitehouse |
title |
Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web |
title_short |
Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web |
title_full |
Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web |
title_fullStr |
Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bottom–Up Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on the Eastern Bering Sea Food Web |
title_sort |
bottom–up impacts of forecasted climate change on the eastern bering sea food web |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 https://doaj.org/article/4d916901177a4b0aba5d50252b91c246 |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 https://doaj.org/article/4d916901177a4b0aba5d50252b91c246 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.624301 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
8 |
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1766377443368632320 |