Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing
Most of the North Atlantic ocean has warmed over the last decades, except a region located over the subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic “warming hole” (WH), where sea surface temperature (SST) has in contrast decreased. Previous assessments have attributed part of this cooling to the anthropo...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4d50c3b4a721445ba254ef87c5c1e59b 2023-07-16T03:59:44+02:00 Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023 https://doaj.org/article/4d50c3b4a721445ba254ef87c5c1e59b EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/685/2023/esd-14-685-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-14-685-2023 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/4d50c3b4a721445ba254ef87c5c1e59b Earth System Dynamics, Vol 14, Pp 685-695 (2023) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023 2023-06-25T00:36:13Z Most of the North Atlantic ocean has warmed over the last decades, except a region located over the subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic “warming hole” (WH), where sea surface temperature (SST) has in contrast decreased. Previous assessments have attributed part of this cooling to the anthropogenic forcings (ANT) – aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) – modulated by decadal internal variability. Here, I use an innovative and proven statistical method which combines climate models and observations to confirm the anthropogenic role in the cooling of the warming hole. The impact of the aerosols is an increase in SST which is opposed to the effect of GHGs. The latter largely contribute to the cooling of the warming hole over the historical period. Yet, large uncertainties remain in the quantification of the impact of each anthropogenic forcing. The statistical method is able to reduce the model uncertainty in SST over the warming hole, both over the historical and future periods with a decrease of 65 % in the short term and up to 50 % in the long term. A model evaluation validates the reliability of the obtained projections. In particular, the projections associated with a strong temperature increase over the warming hole are now excluded from the likely range obtained after applying the method. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 14 3 685 695 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 S. Qasmi Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
Most of the North Atlantic ocean has warmed over the last decades, except a region located over the subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic “warming hole” (WH), where sea surface temperature (SST) has in contrast decreased. Previous assessments have attributed part of this cooling to the anthropogenic forcings (ANT) – aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) – modulated by decadal internal variability. Here, I use an innovative and proven statistical method which combines climate models and observations to confirm the anthropogenic role in the cooling of the warming hole. The impact of the aerosols is an increase in SST which is opposed to the effect of GHGs. The latter largely contribute to the cooling of the warming hole over the historical period. Yet, large uncertainties remain in the quantification of the impact of each anthropogenic forcing. The statistical method is able to reduce the model uncertainty in SST over the warming hole, both over the historical and future periods with a decrease of 65 % in the short term and up to 50 % in the long term. A model evaluation validates the reliability of the obtained projections. In particular, the projections associated with a strong temperature increase over the warming hole are now excluded from the likely range obtained after applying the method. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Qasmi |
author_facet |
S. Qasmi |
author_sort |
S. Qasmi |
title |
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
title_short |
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
title_full |
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
title_fullStr |
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
title_full_unstemmed |
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
title_sort |
past and future response of the north atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023 https://doaj.org/article/4d50c3b4a721445ba254ef87c5c1e59b |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 14, Pp 685-695 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/685/2023/esd-14-685-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-14-685-2023 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/4d50c3b4a721445ba254ef87c5c1e59b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
685 |
op_container_end_page |
695 |
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1771547936174374912 |