Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective.
Background Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and furt...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4c4991ca912d4b3f8200a2238a48afb8 2023-06-11T04:09:56+02:00 Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. Chun-Hu Li Jun-Jie Mao You-Jia Wu Bin Zhang Xun Zhuang Gang Qin Hong-Mei Liu 2023-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 https://doaj.org/article/4c4991ca912d4b3f8200a2238a48afb8 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 https://doaj.org/article/4c4991ca912d4b3f8200a2238a48afb8 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 5, p e0011286 (2023) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 2023-05-28T00:32:27Z Background Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and further quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD dynamics. Methods We collected monthly province-level HFMD incidence and related environmental and socioeconomic data in China during 2009-2018. Hierarchical Bayesian models were constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between regional HFMD and various covariates: linear and nonlinear effects for environmental covariates, and linear effects for socioeconomic covariates. Results The spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases was highly heterogeneous, indicated by the Lorenz curves and the corresponding Gini indices. The peak time (R2 = 0.65, P = 0.009), annual amplitude (R2 = 0.94, P<0.001), and semi-annual periodicity contribution (R2 = 0.88, P<0.001) displayed marked latitudinal gradients in Central China region. The most likely cluster areas for HFMD were located in south China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan) from April 2013 to October 2017. The Bayesian models achieved the best predictive performance (R2 = 0.87, P<0.001). We found significant nonlinear associations between monthly average temperature, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index and HFMD transmission. Besides, population density (RR = 1.261; 95%CI, 1.169-1.353), birth rate (RR = 1.058; 95%CI, 1.025-1.090), real GDP per capita (RR = 1.163; 95%CI, 1.033-1.310) and school vacation (RR = 0.507; 95%CI, 0.459-0.559) were identified to have positive or negative effects on HFMD respectively. Our model could successfully predict months with HFMD outbreaks versus non-outbreaks in provinces of China from Jan 2009 to Dec 2018. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of refined spatial and temporal data, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17 5 e0011286 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Chun-Hu Li Jun-Jie Mao You-Jia Wu Bin Zhang Xun Zhuang Gang Qin Hong-Mei Liu Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Understanding geospatial impacts of multi-sourced influencing factors on the epidemic of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is of great significance for formulating disease control policies tailored to regional-specific needs, yet the knowledge is very limited. We aim to identify and further quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneous effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on HFMD dynamics. Methods We collected monthly province-level HFMD incidence and related environmental and socioeconomic data in China during 2009-2018. Hierarchical Bayesian models were constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal relationships between regional HFMD and various covariates: linear and nonlinear effects for environmental covariates, and linear effects for socioeconomic covariates. Results The spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD cases was highly heterogeneous, indicated by the Lorenz curves and the corresponding Gini indices. The peak time (R2 = 0.65, P = 0.009), annual amplitude (R2 = 0.94, P<0.001), and semi-annual periodicity contribution (R2 = 0.88, P<0.001) displayed marked latitudinal gradients in Central China region. The most likely cluster areas for HFMD were located in south China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan) from April 2013 to October 2017. The Bayesian models achieved the best predictive performance (R2 = 0.87, P<0.001). We found significant nonlinear associations between monthly average temperature, relative humidity, normalized difference vegetation index and HFMD transmission. Besides, population density (RR = 1.261; 95%CI, 1.169-1.353), birth rate (RR = 1.058; 95%CI, 1.025-1.090), real GDP per capita (RR = 1.163; 95%CI, 1.033-1.310) and school vacation (RR = 0.507; 95%CI, 0.459-0.559) were identified to have positive or negative effects on HFMD respectively. Our model could successfully predict months with HFMD outbreaks versus non-outbreaks in provinces of China from Jan 2009 to Dec 2018. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of refined spatial and temporal data, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chun-Hu Li Jun-Jie Mao You-Jia Wu Bin Zhang Xun Zhuang Gang Qin Hong-Mei Liu |
author_facet |
Chun-Hu Li Jun-Jie Mao You-Jia Wu Bin Zhang Xun Zhuang Gang Qin Hong-Mei Liu |
author_sort |
Chun-Hu Li |
title |
Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
title_short |
Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
title_full |
Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
title_fullStr |
Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on HFMD risk in China: A spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
title_sort |
combined impacts of environmental and socioeconomic covariates on hfmd risk in china: a spatiotemporal heterogeneous perspective. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 https://doaj.org/article/4c4991ca912d4b3f8200a2238a48afb8 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 5, p e0011286 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 https://doaj.org/article/4c4991ca912d4b3f8200a2238a48afb8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011286 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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17 |
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5 |
container_start_page |
e0011286 |
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