Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming
In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5 °C rise (relative to 1861–1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafr...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 https://doaj.org/article/4bb5c233e3734b5394d0c1fb71a2bd5a |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4bb5c233e3734b5394d0c1fb71a2bd5a 2023-05-15T17:56:23+02:00 Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming Ying Kong Cheng-Hai Wang 2017-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 https://doaj.org/article/4bb5c233e3734b5394d0c1fb71a2bd5a EN eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927817300680 https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9278 1674-9278 doi:10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 https://doaj.org/article/4bb5c233e3734b5394d0c1fb71a2bd5a Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 235-244 (2017) Permafrost Snow water equivalent Northern Hemisphere 1.5 °C global warming Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 2022-12-31T06:21:33Z In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5 °C rise (relative to 1861–1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5 °C, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5 °C warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1–3.5° northward (relative to 1986–2005), particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43 × 106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91 × 106 km2 (24.1%) and 4.15 × 106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986–2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40% relative to 1986–2005) in central North America, western Europe, and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15 × 106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18 × 106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17 × 106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Advances in Climate Change Research 8 4 235 244 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Permafrost Snow water equivalent Northern Hemisphere 1.5 °C global warming Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
spellingShingle |
Permafrost Snow water equivalent Northern Hemisphere 1.5 °C global warming Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 Ying Kong Cheng-Hai Wang Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming |
topic_facet |
Permafrost Snow water equivalent Northern Hemisphere 1.5 °C global warming Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
description |
In this study, the period that corresponds to the threshold of a 1.5 °C rise (relative to 1861–1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5 °C, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5 °C warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1–3.5° northward (relative to 1986–2005), particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43 × 106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91 × 106 km2 (24.1%) and 4.15 × 106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986–2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40% relative to 1986–2005) in central North America, western Europe, and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15 × 106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18 × 106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17 × 106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ying Kong Cheng-Hai Wang |
author_facet |
Ying Kong Cheng-Hai Wang |
author_sort |
Ying Kong |
title |
Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming |
title_short |
Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming |
title_full |
Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming |
title_fullStr |
Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °C warming |
title_sort |
responses and changes in the permafrost and snow water equivalent in the northern hemisphere under a scenario of 1.5 °c warming |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 https://doaj.org/article/4bb5c233e3734b5394d0c1fb71a2bd5a |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol 8, Iss 4, Pp 235-244 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927817300680 https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9278 1674-9278 doi:10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 https://doaj.org/article/4bb5c233e3734b5394d0c1fb71a2bd5a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.07.002 |
container_title |
Advances in Climate Change Research |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
235 |
op_container_end_page |
244 |
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1766164531544850432 |