The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the key predictor for operational seasonal climate prediction in the United States (U. S.). Compared with the impact of the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO, the role of the Indian Ocean on U. S. climate variability and predictability is less documente...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e https://doaj.org/article/4b8860b35f2d4351a069d813fbbd8dca |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4b8860b35f2d4351a069d813fbbd8dca 2023-09-05T13:21:35+02:00 The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability Zeng-Zhen Hu Arun Kumar Bhaskar Jha Mingyue Chen Wanqiu Wang 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e https://doaj.org/article/4b8860b35f2d4351a069d813fbbd8dca EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/4b8860b35f2d4351a069d813fbbd8dca Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 7, p 074033 (2023) Indian Ocean anomaly ENSO U. S. winter precipitation teleconnection Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e 2023-08-13T00:36:51Z The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the key predictor for operational seasonal climate prediction in the United States (U. S.). Compared with the impact of the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO, the role of the Indian Ocean on U. S. climate variability and predictability is less documented. In this work, we noted that the impact of the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than the tropical Pacific on winter precipitation variability in a part of the southeastern contiguous U. S. (CONUS), mainly including Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Different from the north-south contrastive impact of ENSO, the influence of the Indian Ocean is confined to the southeastern CONUS. Basin-wide warming (cooling) in the tropical Indian Ocean is tied to above (below) normal winter precipitation in the southeastern CONUS. The observed relationship is reproduced in model forecasts and simulations. Physically, Indian Ocean heating anomaly communicates its influence by inducing a teleconnection from the Indian Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean via the North Pacific. The connection provides an additional source of predictability of the winter precipitation in CONUS, and monitoring the heat condition in the Indian Ocean may benefit winter precipitation prediction in the southeastern CONUS. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Alabama Indian Pacific Environmental Research Letters 18 7 074033 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Indian Ocean anomaly ENSO U. S. winter precipitation teleconnection Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Indian Ocean anomaly ENSO U. S. winter precipitation teleconnection Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Zeng-Zhen Hu Arun Kumar Bhaskar Jha Mingyue Chen Wanqiu Wang The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
topic_facet |
Indian Ocean anomaly ENSO U. S. winter precipitation teleconnection Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the key predictor for operational seasonal climate prediction in the United States (U. S.). Compared with the impact of the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO, the role of the Indian Ocean on U. S. climate variability and predictability is less documented. In this work, we noted that the impact of the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than the tropical Pacific on winter precipitation variability in a part of the southeastern contiguous U. S. (CONUS), mainly including Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Different from the north-south contrastive impact of ENSO, the influence of the Indian Ocean is confined to the southeastern CONUS. Basin-wide warming (cooling) in the tropical Indian Ocean is tied to above (below) normal winter precipitation in the southeastern CONUS. The observed relationship is reproduced in model forecasts and simulations. Physically, Indian Ocean heating anomaly communicates its influence by inducing a teleconnection from the Indian Ocean to the North Atlantic Ocean via the North Pacific. The connection provides an additional source of predictability of the winter precipitation in CONUS, and monitoring the heat condition in the Indian Ocean may benefit winter precipitation prediction in the southeastern CONUS. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zeng-Zhen Hu Arun Kumar Bhaskar Jha Mingyue Chen Wanqiu Wang |
author_facet |
Zeng-Zhen Hu Arun Kumar Bhaskar Jha Mingyue Chen Wanqiu Wang |
author_sort |
Zeng-Zhen Hu |
title |
The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
title_short |
The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
title_full |
The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
title_fullStr |
The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tropical Indian Ocean matters for U. S. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
title_sort |
tropical indian ocean matters for u. s. winter precipitation variability and predictability |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e https://doaj.org/article/4b8860b35f2d4351a069d813fbbd8dca |
geographic |
Alabama Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Alabama Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 7, p 074033 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/4b8860b35f2d4351a069d813fbbd8dca |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace06e |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
074033 |
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1776202179925770240 |