Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic
A conventional parameterization of midlatitude warm fog occurrence, based on in situ observations, is employed to estimate marine surface visibility in the Arctic and North Atlantic from three datasets: an ensemble member of the Hadley Earth System (HadGEM2) model and a nested regional WRF simulatio...
Published in: | Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4b5c8c70532546479dfc49af7a66ed64 2023-05-15T15:03:35+02:00 Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic R. E. Danielson M. Zhang W. A. Perrie 2020-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-31-2020 https://doaj.org/article/4b5c8c70532546479dfc49af7a66ed64 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/6/31/2020/ascmo-6-31-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2364-3579 https://doaj.org/toc/2364-3587 doi:10.5194/ascmo-6-31-2020 2364-3579 2364-3587 https://doaj.org/article/4b5c8c70532546479dfc49af7a66ed64 Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 6, Pp 31-43 (2020) Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-31-2020 2022-12-30T21:20:20Z A conventional parameterization of midlatitude warm fog occurrence, based on in situ observations, is employed to estimate marine surface visibility in the Arctic and North Atlantic from three datasets: an ensemble member of the Hadley Earth System (HadGEM2) model and a nested regional WRF simulation that follow historical and future emissions scenarios for 1979–2100, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 1979–2004. Over large scales (of an entire year and region), all three gridded datasets agree well in terms of variables like surface air temperature, whose systematic differences seem small by comparison with its predicted change over the course of this century. On the other hand, systematic differences are more apparent in large-scale estimates of relative humidity and visibility. Large differences are attributed to a sensitivity to representation bias that is inherent in the formulation of each individual model and analysis. Two simple linear calibrations are examined, both of which assume that an in situ based parameterization is broadly consistent with the use of marine (ICOADS) observations of air and dew point temperature as an error-free reference. A single-step calibration is considered that takes the mean and variance of ICOADS frequency distributions as a reference. A two-step calibration is also performed in which ICOADS collocations are taken as a reference for the ERA reanalysis, which in turn is taken as a large-scale reference for the 1979–2004 HadGEM2 and WRF simulations. Both linear calibrations are applied (locally in time and space to air and dew point temperature) to the future climate scenarios of HadGEM2 and WRF. Although ICOADS observations are not error-free and parameterized visibility estimates are unlikely to capture much more than half the variance found in observations, attempts are made to present consistent regional changes in the frequency of high relative humidity, as a proxy for warm fog occurrence. The large-scale decrease in visibility over the 21st century is in the range of 8 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography 6 1 31 43 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 |
spellingShingle |
Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 R. E. Danielson M. Zhang W. A. Perrie Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Probabilities. Mathematical statistics QA273-280 |
description |
A conventional parameterization of midlatitude warm fog occurrence, based on in situ observations, is employed to estimate marine surface visibility in the Arctic and North Atlantic from three datasets: an ensemble member of the Hadley Earth System (HadGEM2) model and a nested regional WRF simulation that follow historical and future emissions scenarios for 1979–2100, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 1979–2004. Over large scales (of an entire year and region), all three gridded datasets agree well in terms of variables like surface air temperature, whose systematic differences seem small by comparison with its predicted change over the course of this century. On the other hand, systematic differences are more apparent in large-scale estimates of relative humidity and visibility. Large differences are attributed to a sensitivity to representation bias that is inherent in the formulation of each individual model and analysis. Two simple linear calibrations are examined, both of which assume that an in situ based parameterization is broadly consistent with the use of marine (ICOADS) observations of air and dew point temperature as an error-free reference. A single-step calibration is considered that takes the mean and variance of ICOADS frequency distributions as a reference. A two-step calibration is also performed in which ICOADS collocations are taken as a reference for the ERA reanalysis, which in turn is taken as a large-scale reference for the 1979–2004 HadGEM2 and WRF simulations. Both linear calibrations are applied (locally in time and space to air and dew point temperature) to the future climate scenarios of HadGEM2 and WRF. Although ICOADS observations are not error-free and parameterized visibility estimates are unlikely to capture much more than half the variance found in observations, attempts are made to present consistent regional changes in the frequency of high relative humidity, as a proxy for warm fog occurrence. The large-scale decrease in visibility over the 21st century is in the range of 8 ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. E. Danielson M. Zhang W. A. Perrie |
author_facet |
R. E. Danielson M. Zhang W. A. Perrie |
author_sort |
R. E. Danielson |
title |
Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic |
title_short |
Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic |
title_full |
Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic |
title_sort |
possible impacts of climate change on fog in the arctic and subpolar north atlantic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-31-2020 https://doaj.org/article/4b5c8c70532546479dfc49af7a66ed64 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
op_source |
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 6, Pp 31-43 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.adv-stat-clim-meteorol-oceanogr.net/6/31/2020/ascmo-6-31-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2364-3579 https://doaj.org/toc/2364-3587 doi:10.5194/ascmo-6-31-2020 2364-3579 2364-3587 https://doaj.org/article/4b5c8c70532546479dfc49af7a66ed64 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-31-2020 |
container_title |
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
31 |
op_container_end_page |
43 |
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1766335448364351488 |