Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings
Natural variations in the strength of the northern stratospheric polar vortex, so-called polar vortex events, help to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions of winter climate. Past research on polar vortex events has been largely focused on sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs), a cl...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4ae2d6d8ec544a36aa8cd38f70d2582c 2023-05-15T15:08:10+02:00 Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings T. Reichler M. Jucker 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022 https://doaj.org/article/4ae2d6d8ec544a36aa8cd38f70d2582c EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/659/2022/wcd-3-659-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/4ae2d6d8ec544a36aa8cd38f70d2582c Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 659-677 (2022) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022 2022-12-30T23:06:07Z Natural variations in the strength of the northern stratospheric polar vortex, so-called polar vortex events, help to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions of winter climate. Past research on polar vortex events has been largely focused on sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs), a class of relatively strong weakenings of the polar vortex. Commonly, SSWs are defined when the polar vortex reverses its climatological wintertime westerly wind direction. In this study, however, we use an alternative definition, based on the weighted time-integrated upward wave activity flux at the lower stratosphere. We use a long control simulation with a stratosphere-resolving model and the ERA5 reanalysis to compare various aspects of the wave activity definition with common SSWs over the Arctic. About half of the wave events are identical to common SSWs. However, there exist several advantages for defining stratospheric weak extremes based on wave events rather than using the common SSW definition: the wave activity flux definition captures with one criterion a variety of different event types, detects strong SSWs and strong final warming events, avoids weak SSWs that have little surface impact, and potentially lengthens the prediction horizon of the surface response. We therefore conclude that the wave driving represents a useful early indicator for stratospheric polar vortex events, which exploits the stratospheric potential for creating predictable surface signals better than common SSWs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 2 659 677 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 T. Reichler M. Jucker Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Natural variations in the strength of the northern stratospheric polar vortex, so-called polar vortex events, help to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions of winter climate. Past research on polar vortex events has been largely focused on sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs), a class of relatively strong weakenings of the polar vortex. Commonly, SSWs are defined when the polar vortex reverses its climatological wintertime westerly wind direction. In this study, however, we use an alternative definition, based on the weighted time-integrated upward wave activity flux at the lower stratosphere. We use a long control simulation with a stratosphere-resolving model and the ERA5 reanalysis to compare various aspects of the wave activity definition with common SSWs over the Arctic. About half of the wave events are identical to common SSWs. However, there exist several advantages for defining stratospheric weak extremes based on wave events rather than using the common SSW definition: the wave activity flux definition captures with one criterion a variety of different event types, detects strong SSWs and strong final warming events, avoids weak SSWs that have little surface impact, and potentially lengthens the prediction horizon of the surface response. We therefore conclude that the wave driving represents a useful early indicator for stratospheric polar vortex events, which exploits the stratospheric potential for creating predictable surface signals better than common SSWs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Reichler M. Jucker |
author_facet |
T. Reichler M. Jucker |
author_sort |
T. Reichler |
title |
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
title_short |
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
title_full |
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
title_sort |
stratospheric wave driving events as an alternative to sudden stratospheric warmings |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022 https://doaj.org/article/4ae2d6d8ec544a36aa8cd38f70d2582c |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 3, Pp 659-677 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/659/2022/wcd-3-659-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/4ae2d6d8ec544a36aa8cd38f70d2582c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-659-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
659 |
op_container_end_page |
677 |
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1766339577870548992 |