Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records
Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial tran...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b 2023-05-15T16:00:03+02:00 Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 https://doaj.org/article/4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1275/2022/cp-18-1275-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b Climate of the Past, Vol 18, Pp 1275-1294 (2022) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 2022-12-30T23:03:04Z Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. Article in Journal/Newspaper Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Climate of the Past 18 6 1275 1294 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial–interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers |
author_facet |
E. Myrvoll-Nilsen K. Riechers M. W. Rypdal N. Boers |
author_sort |
E. Myrvoll-Nilsen |
title |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_short |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_full |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_fullStr |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records |
title_sort |
comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of greenland warmings in the greenland ice core records |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 https://doaj.org/article/4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core |
genre_facet |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events Greenland Greenland ice core Greenland ice cores ice core |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 18, Pp 1275-1294 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1275/2022/cp-18-1275-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/4aaaaca9b4304777863c01e5fabc785b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1275 |
op_container_end_page |
1294 |
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1766395930758610944 |