Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)

In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled ice flow–mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from a precipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Mod...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: H. Zekollari, P. Huybrechts, B. Noël, W. J. van de Berg, M. R. van den Broeke
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017
https://doaj.org/article/4a5a060e24f14727aee78f1b74b5b4e3
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4a5a060e24f14727aee78f1b74b5b4e3 2023-05-15T16:28:58+02:00 Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland) H. Zekollari P. Huybrechts B. Noël W. J. van de Berg M. R. van den Broeke 2017-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017 https://doaj.org/article/4a5a060e24f14727aee78f1b74b5b4e3 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/805/2017/tc-11-805-2017.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-11-805-2017 https://doaj.org/article/4a5a060e24f14727aee78f1b74b5b4e3 The Cryosphere, Vol 11, Iss 2, Pp 805-825 (2017) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017 2022-12-31T00:05:02Z In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled ice flow–mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from a precipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3), while runoff is calculated from a positive-degree-day runoff–retention model. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermomechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solution is needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions a steady-state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB–elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005–2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained, and the ice cap loses about 80 % of its present-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea ice and resultant precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss but will be insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat, while the interior is projected to thicken, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate- (+4 °C) and high- warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappear around AD 2400 and 2200 respectively, almost independent of the projected precipitation regime and the simulated present-day ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Hans Tausen iskappe Ice cap Peary Land Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Hans Tausen Iskappe ENVELOPE(-37.500,-37.500,82.583,82.583) Peary ENVELOPE(-63.867,-63.867,-65.250,-65.250) Peary Land ENVELOPE(-32.500,-32.500,82.633,82.633) The Cryosphere 11 2 805 825
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
spellingShingle Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
H. Zekollari
P. Huybrechts
B. Noël
W. J. van de Berg
M. R. van den Broeke
Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)
topic_facet Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Geology
QE1-996.5
description In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled ice flow–mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from a precipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3), while runoff is calculated from a positive-degree-day runoff–retention model. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermomechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solution is needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Under 1961–1990 climatic conditions a steady-state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB–elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005–2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained, and the ice cap loses about 80 % of its present-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea ice and resultant precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss but will be insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat, while the interior is projected to thicken, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate- (+4 °C) and high- warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappear around AD 2400 and 2200 respectively, almost independent of the projected precipitation regime and the simulated present-day ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author H. Zekollari
P. Huybrechts
B. Noël
W. J. van de Berg
M. R. van den Broeke
author_facet H. Zekollari
P. Huybrechts
B. Noël
W. J. van de Berg
M. R. van den Broeke
author_sort H. Zekollari
title Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)
title_short Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)
title_full Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)
title_fullStr Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)
title_full_unstemmed Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)
title_sort sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, hans tausen iskappe (greenland)
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2017
url https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017
https://doaj.org/article/4a5a060e24f14727aee78f1b74b5b4e3
long_lat ENVELOPE(-37.500,-37.500,82.583,82.583)
ENVELOPE(-63.867,-63.867,-65.250,-65.250)
ENVELOPE(-32.500,-32.500,82.633,82.633)
geographic Greenland
Hans Tausen Iskappe
Peary
Peary Land
geographic_facet Greenland
Hans Tausen Iskappe
Peary
Peary Land
genre Greenland
Hans Tausen iskappe
Ice cap
Peary Land
Sea ice
The Cryosphere
genre_facet Greenland
Hans Tausen iskappe
Ice cap
Peary Land
Sea ice
The Cryosphere
op_source The Cryosphere, Vol 11, Iss 2, Pp 805-825 (2017)
op_relation http://www.the-cryosphere.net/11/805/2017/tc-11-805-2017.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416
https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424
1994-0416
1994-0424
doi:10.5194/tc-11-805-2017
https://doaj.org/article/4a5a060e24f14727aee78f1b74b5b4e3
op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-805-2017
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 11
container_issue 2
container_start_page 805
op_container_end_page 825
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