Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions
Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long‐term WAM variabi...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4a329f228f2e4a208184c59f0d000e2d 2023-05-15T17:34:38+02:00 Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions Paul‐Arthur Monerie Andrea J. Dittus Laura J. Wilcox Andrew G. Turner 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 https://doaj.org/article/4a329f228f2e4a208184c59f0d000e2d EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF002995 https://doaj.org/article/4a329f228f2e4a208184c59f0d000e2d Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) anthropogenic aerosols West Africa Sahel precipitation uncertainty drought SMURPHS Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 2023-02-26T01:27:39Z Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long‐term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3‐GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi‐decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi‐decadal variability in the WAM. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth's Future 11 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
anthropogenic aerosols West Africa Sahel precipitation uncertainty drought SMURPHS Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
anthropogenic aerosols West Africa Sahel precipitation uncertainty drought SMURPHS Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Paul‐Arthur Monerie Andrea J. Dittus Laura J. Wilcox Andrew G. Turner Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions |
topic_facet |
anthropogenic aerosols West Africa Sahel precipitation uncertainty drought SMURPHS Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long‐term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3‐GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi‐decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi‐decadal variability in the WAM. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Paul‐Arthur Monerie Andrea J. Dittus Laura J. Wilcox Andrew G. Turner |
author_facet |
Paul‐Arthur Monerie Andrea J. Dittus Laura J. Wilcox Andrew G. Turner |
author_sort |
Paul‐Arthur Monerie |
title |
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions |
title_short |
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions |
title_full |
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions |
title_sort |
uncertainty in simulating twentieth century west african precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 https://doaj.org/article/4a329f228f2e4a208184c59f0d000e2d |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Earth's Future, Vol 11, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 2328-4277 doi:10.1029/2022EF002995 https://doaj.org/article/4a329f228f2e4a208184c59f0d000e2d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
2 |
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1766133526137143296 |