Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba
Study region: Lower Nelson River Basin, Manitoba, Canada Study focus: Hydroelectricity makes up almost 97% of electricity generated in Manitoba, of which over 70% of its generation capacity is installed along the Lower Nelson River (LNR). In this study, 19 climate projections representing ~ 87% of c...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:49cbfaa34c6b45d28a4024b665911c78 2023-05-15T16:35:30+02:00 Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba Su Jin Kim Masoud Asadzadeh Tricia A. Stadnyk 2022-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101077 https://doaj.org/article/49cbfaa34c6b45d28a4024b665911c78 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822000908 https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818 2214-5818 doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101077 https://doaj.org/article/49cbfaa34c6b45d28a4024b665911c78 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 41, Iss , Pp 101077- (2022) Climate change Cascade river-reservoir system Hydropower Hydrologic modeling Operations modeling Model coupling Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101077 2022-12-30T21:49:19Z Study region: Lower Nelson River Basin, Manitoba, Canada Study focus: Hydroelectricity makes up almost 97% of electricity generated in Manitoba, of which over 70% of its generation capacity is installed along the Lower Nelson River (LNR). In this study, 19 climate projections representing ~ 87% of climatic variability over Hudson Bay Drainage Basin are applied to coupled hydrologic-operations models to estimate water supply and hydropower generation potential changes under future climates. New hydrological insights for the region: Future inflow to the forebay of the main hydropower generating stations along LNR is expected to increase in spring and summer but decrease in winter and fall. Consequently, hydropower generation potential is projected to increase for spring, the historical flood season, which may lead to reduced reservoir inflow retention efficiency. In extremely dry climatic simulations, winter seasons see a reduction in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential, up to 35% and 37% in 2021–2050 and 2041–2070, respectively. Projected changes in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential continue to diverge over time, with dry scenarios becoming drier and wet becoming wetter, yielding high basin climate sensitivity and uncertainty with system supply and generation potential. Despite the presence of statistically significant individual trends and changes, there is a low agreement within the climate ensemble. Analysis of system robustness shows adjustment of the operations along LNR should be considered over time to better leverage changing seasonal water supply. Article in Journal/Newspaper Hudson Bay Nelson River Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Hudson Bay Canada Hudson Cascade River ENVELOPE(70.152,70.152,-49.156,-49.156) Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 41 101077 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Cascade river-reservoir system Hydropower Hydrologic modeling Operations modeling Model coupling Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Cascade river-reservoir system Hydropower Hydrologic modeling Operations modeling Model coupling Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 Su Jin Kim Masoud Asadzadeh Tricia A. Stadnyk Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba |
topic_facet |
Climate change Cascade river-reservoir system Hydropower Hydrologic modeling Operations modeling Model coupling Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Study region: Lower Nelson River Basin, Manitoba, Canada Study focus: Hydroelectricity makes up almost 97% of electricity generated in Manitoba, of which over 70% of its generation capacity is installed along the Lower Nelson River (LNR). In this study, 19 climate projections representing ~ 87% of climatic variability over Hudson Bay Drainage Basin are applied to coupled hydrologic-operations models to estimate water supply and hydropower generation potential changes under future climates. New hydrological insights for the region: Future inflow to the forebay of the main hydropower generating stations along LNR is expected to increase in spring and summer but decrease in winter and fall. Consequently, hydropower generation potential is projected to increase for spring, the historical flood season, which may lead to reduced reservoir inflow retention efficiency. In extremely dry climatic simulations, winter seasons see a reduction in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential, up to 35% and 37% in 2021–2050 and 2041–2070, respectively. Projected changes in reservoir inflow and hydropower generation potential continue to diverge over time, with dry scenarios becoming drier and wet becoming wetter, yielding high basin climate sensitivity and uncertainty with system supply and generation potential. Despite the presence of statistically significant individual trends and changes, there is a low agreement within the climate ensemble. Analysis of system robustness shows adjustment of the operations along LNR should be considered over time to better leverage changing seasonal water supply. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Su Jin Kim Masoud Asadzadeh Tricia A. Stadnyk |
author_facet |
Su Jin Kim Masoud Asadzadeh Tricia A. Stadnyk |
author_sort |
Su Jin Kim |
title |
Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba |
title_short |
Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba |
title_full |
Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in Northern Manitoba |
title_sort |
climate change impact on water supply and hydropower generation potential in northern manitoba |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101077 https://doaj.org/article/49cbfaa34c6b45d28a4024b665911c78 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(70.152,70.152,-49.156,-49.156) |
geographic |
Hudson Bay Canada Hudson Cascade River |
geographic_facet |
Hudson Bay Canada Hudson Cascade River |
genre |
Hudson Bay Nelson River |
genre_facet |
Hudson Bay Nelson River |
op_source |
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 41, Iss , Pp 101077- (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822000908 https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818 2214-5818 doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101077 https://doaj.org/article/49cbfaa34c6b45d28a4024b665911c78 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101077 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
container_volume |
41 |
container_start_page |
101077 |
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1766025733136711680 |