The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s
The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of si...
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Copernicus Publications
2023
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://doaj.org/article/487c8cdd3c9a467abe72d44e4722aba7 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:487c8cdd3c9a467abe72d44e4722aba7 2023-07-30T04:05:40+02:00 The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s I. Keizer D. Le Bars C. de Valk A. Jüling R. van de Wal S. Drijfhout 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://doaj.org/article/487c8cdd3c9a467abe72d44e4722aba7 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0784 https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0792 doi:10.5194/os-19-991-2023 1812-0784 1812-0792 https://doaj.org/article/487c8cdd3c9a467abe72d44e4722aba7 Ocean Science, Vol 19, Pp 991-1007 (2023) Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 2023-07-09T00:34:13Z The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.7 2.2 1.3 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="9ff72ed2c15a494a31dfe47cfd759cf9"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" src="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> mm yr −1 in 1900–1919 and 1.5 1.9 1.2 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Gam ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) Ocean Science 19 4 991 1007 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 I. Keizer D. Le Bars C. de Valk A. Jüling R. van de Wal S. Drijfhout The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
topic_facet |
Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established. On the local scale, this is harder to establish as several drivers of SLR play a role, which can mask the acceleration. Here, we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from the average of six tide gauge records covering the period 1890–2021. To isolate the effects of the wind field variations and the nodal tide from the local sea-level trend, we use four generalised additive models (GAMs) which include different predictive variables. From the sea-level trend estimates, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period. The standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR is reduced when we account for nodal-tide effects and is reduced further when we also account for the wind effects, meaning these provide better estimates of the rate of SLR. A part of the long-term SLR is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream, but this SLR contribution decelerated over the observational period. Additionally, we detect wind-forced sea-level variability on multidecadal timescales with an amplitude of around 1 cm. Using a coherence analysis, we identify both the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as its drivers. Crucially, accounting for the nodal-tide and wind effects changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an SLR acceleration that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting GAM, which accounts for nodal and wind effects, yields a rate of SLR of about 1.7 2.2 1.3 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" class="svg-formula" dspmath="mathimg" md5hash="9ff72ed2c15a494a31dfe47cfd759cf9"><svg:image xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.svg" width="28pt" height="15pt" src="os-19-991-2023-ie00001.png"/></svg:svg> mm yr −1 in 1900–1919 and 1.5 1.9 1.2 <svg:svg xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
I. Keizer D. Le Bars C. de Valk A. Jüling R. van de Wal S. Drijfhout |
author_facet |
I. Keizer D. Le Bars C. de Valk A. Jüling R. van de Wal S. Drijfhout |
author_sort |
I. Keizer |
title |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_short |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_full |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_fullStr |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_full_unstemmed |
The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s |
title_sort |
acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the netherlands started in the 1960s |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 https://doaj.org/article/487c8cdd3c9a467abe72d44e4722aba7 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-57.955,-57.955,-61.923,-61.923) |
geographic |
Gam |
geographic_facet |
Gam |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Ocean Science, Vol 19, Pp 991-1007 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://os.copernicus.org/articles/19/991/2023/os-19-991-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0784 https://doaj.org/toc/1812-0792 doi:10.5194/os-19-991-2023 1812-0784 1812-0792 https://doaj.org/article/487c8cdd3c9a467abe72d44e4722aba7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-991-2023 |
container_title |
Ocean Science |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
991 |
op_container_end_page |
1007 |
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1772817740363464704 |