The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016
The population of Atlantic cod significantly contributes to the prosperity of fishery production in the world. In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the global abundance variation in Atlantic cod from 1919 to 2016, in favor of spatiotemporal interactions over manifold impact factors at local...
Published in: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 https://doaj.org/article/485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 2023-05-15T15:26:54+02:00 The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 Rui Nian Qiang Yuan Hui He Xue Geng Chi-Wei Su Bo He Amaury Lendasse 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 https://doaj.org/article/485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 https://doaj.org/article/485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) wavelet analysis Atlantic cod abundance sea surface temperature Atlantic cod catches prey biomass sea surface salinity Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 2022-12-31T09:39:02Z The population of Atlantic cod significantly contributes to the prosperity of fishery production in the world. In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the global abundance variation in Atlantic cod from 1919 to 2016, in favor of spatiotemporal interactions over manifold impact factors at local observation sites, and propose to explore the predictive mechanism with the help of its periodicity, time–frequency co-movement, and lead-lag effects, via long short-term memory (LSTM). We first integrate evidences yielded from wavelet coefficients, to suggest that the abundance variation potentially follows a 36-year major cycle and 24-year secondary cycle at the time scales of 55 years and 37 years. We further evaluate the responses of Atlantic cod abundance to the external impact factors, including sea surface temperature (SST), catches, prey biomass, and sea surface salinity (SSS), in aid of the wavelet coherence and phase difference, which allows us to identify the dominantly correlative factors and capture the leading roles along the time domain and then divide the responses around the recent 60 years into three stages: before 1985, 1985–1995, and after 1995. At the first stage, the reason for the decline in abundance could be mainly attributed to the rapid rise of fish catches. At the second stage, the impact of SST and SSS also provides significant indices, besides overfishing; meanwhile, the mortality of primary producers and forced migration of fish species indirectly cause the decline. At the third stage, warming SST and growing SSS directly led to the decrease of abundance. Finally, we establish one ensemble of LSTM-SAE architecture to comprehensively reflect the predictive patterns at each stage. It has been demonstrated from experimental results that the models behaved better when intentionally feeding with the dominantly correlative multivariate inputs, instead of either all factors or only the abundance. The proposed scheme provides opportunities to symmetrically identify the underlying predictive ... Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Frontiers in Marine Science 8 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
wavelet analysis Atlantic cod abundance sea surface temperature Atlantic cod catches prey biomass sea surface salinity Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
wavelet analysis Atlantic cod abundance sea surface temperature Atlantic cod catches prey biomass sea surface salinity Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Rui Nian Qiang Yuan Hui He Xue Geng Chi-Wei Su Bo He Amaury Lendasse The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 |
topic_facet |
wavelet analysis Atlantic cod abundance sea surface temperature Atlantic cod catches prey biomass sea surface salinity Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
The population of Atlantic cod significantly contributes to the prosperity of fishery production in the world. In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the global abundance variation in Atlantic cod from 1919 to 2016, in favor of spatiotemporal interactions over manifold impact factors at local observation sites, and propose to explore the predictive mechanism with the help of its periodicity, time–frequency co-movement, and lead-lag effects, via long short-term memory (LSTM). We first integrate evidences yielded from wavelet coefficients, to suggest that the abundance variation potentially follows a 36-year major cycle and 24-year secondary cycle at the time scales of 55 years and 37 years. We further evaluate the responses of Atlantic cod abundance to the external impact factors, including sea surface temperature (SST), catches, prey biomass, and sea surface salinity (SSS), in aid of the wavelet coherence and phase difference, which allows us to identify the dominantly correlative factors and capture the leading roles along the time domain and then divide the responses around the recent 60 years into three stages: before 1985, 1985–1995, and after 1995. At the first stage, the reason for the decline in abundance could be mainly attributed to the rapid rise of fish catches. At the second stage, the impact of SST and SSS also provides significant indices, besides overfishing; meanwhile, the mortality of primary producers and forced migration of fish species indirectly cause the decline. At the third stage, warming SST and growing SSS directly led to the decrease of abundance. Finally, we establish one ensemble of LSTM-SAE architecture to comprehensively reflect the predictive patterns at each stage. It has been demonstrated from experimental results that the models behaved better when intentionally feeding with the dominantly correlative multivariate inputs, instead of either all factors or only the abundance. The proposed scheme provides opportunities to symmetrically identify the underlying predictive ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rui Nian Qiang Yuan Hui He Xue Geng Chi-Wei Su Bo He Amaury Lendasse |
author_facet |
Rui Nian Qiang Yuan Hui He Xue Geng Chi-Wei Su Bo He Amaury Lendasse |
author_sort |
Rui Nian |
title |
The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 |
title_short |
The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 |
title_full |
The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 |
title_fullStr |
The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Identification and Prediction in Abundance Variation of Atlantic Cod via Long Short-Term Memory With Periodicity, Time–Frequency Co-movement, and Lead-Lag Effect Across Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, Catches, and Prey Biomass From 1919 to 2016 |
title_sort |
identification and prediction in abundance variation of atlantic cod via long short-term memory with periodicity, time–frequency co-movement, and lead-lag effect across sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, catches, and prey biomass from 1919 to 2016 |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 https://doaj.org/article/485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 |
genre |
atlantic cod |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 8 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 https://doaj.org/article/485985dbccc4429bb559aaa1c953f711 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.665716 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
8 |
_version_ |
1766357373226582016 |