Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon l...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:47f7a3b4de0843bd8d2d031288d55c83 2023-05-15T18:18:31+02:00 Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble M. Wehner D. Stone D. Mitchell H. Shiogama E. Fischer L. S. Graff V. V. Kharin L. Lierhammer B. Sanderson H. Krishnan 2018-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 https://doaj.org/article/47f7a3b4de0843bd8d2d031288d55c83 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/299/2018/esd-9-299-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/47f7a3b4de0843bd8d2d031288d55c83 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 9, Pp 299-311 (2018) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 2022-12-31T14:26:00Z The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 9 1 299 311 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 M. Wehner D. Stone D. Mitchell H. Shiogama E. Fischer L. S. Graff V. V. Kharin L. Lierhammer B. Sanderson H. Krishnan Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Wehner D. Stone D. Mitchell H. Shiogama E. Fischer L. S. Graff V. V. Kharin L. Lierhammer B. Sanderson H. Krishnan |
author_facet |
M. Wehner D. Stone D. Mitchell H. Shiogama E. Fischer L. S. Graff V. V. Kharin L. Lierhammer B. Sanderson H. Krishnan |
author_sort |
M. Wehner |
title |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °c global warming scenarios as simulated by the happi multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 https://doaj.org/article/47f7a3b4de0843bd8d2d031288d55c83 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 9, Pp 299-311 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/299/2018/esd-9-299-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/47f7a3b4de0843bd8d2d031288d55c83 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
299 |
op_container_end_page |
311 |
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