Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050
Abstract Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace app...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92 2023-05-15T15:44:58+02:00 Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.5973 https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92 Ecology and Evolution, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 1069-1086 (2020) Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 2022-12-31T09:06:35Z Abstract Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Black-legged Kittiwake common guillemot harbor seal Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) Ecology and Evolution 10 2 1069 1086 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5 Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
topic_facet |
Besag York and Mollie (BYM) models critical marine habitat fish integrated nested Laplace approximation marine mammals Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov |
author_facet |
Dinara Sadykova Beth E. Scott Michela De Dominicis Sarah L. Wakelin Judith Wolf Alexander Sadykov |
author_sort |
Dinara Sadykova |
title |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_short |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_full |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_fullStr |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
title_sort |
ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050 |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Laplace |
genre |
Black-legged Kittiwake common guillemot harbor seal |
genre_facet |
Black-legged Kittiwake common guillemot harbor seal |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 1069-1086 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.5973 https://doaj.org/article/47d7ab117c6c4bc09e66ce8ac46eae92 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5973 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1069 |
op_container_end_page |
1086 |
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1766379331564601344 |