Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria
Abstract Background As areas move closer to malaria elimination, a combination of limited resources and increasing heterogeneity in case distribution and transmission favour a shift to targeted reactive interventions. Reactive case detection (RCD), the following up of additional individuals surround...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:46c163efdc74460fa1e28d59035f5efe 2023-05-15T15:10:26+02:00 Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria Theresa Reiker Nakul Chitnis Thomas Smith 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 https://doaj.org/article/46c163efdc74460fa1e28d59035f5efe EN eng BMC http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/46c163efdc74460fa1e28d59035f5efe Malaria Journal, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2019) Simulation Targeting Elimination Surveillance Response Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 2022-12-31T03:38:55Z Abstract Background As areas move closer to malaria elimination, a combination of limited resources and increasing heterogeneity in case distribution and transmission favour a shift to targeted reactive interventions. Reactive case detection (RCD), the following up of additional individuals surrounding an index case, has the potential to target transmission pockets and identify asymptomatic cases in them. Current RCD implementation strategies vary, and it is unclear which are most effective in achieving elimination. Methods OpenMalaria, an established individual-based stochastic model, was used to simulate RCD in a Zambia-like setting. The capacity to follow up index cases, the search radius, the initial transmission and the case management coverage were varied. Suitable settings were identified and probabilities of elimination and time to elimination estimated. The value of routinely collected prevalence and incidence data for predicting the success of RCD was assessed. Results The results indicate that RCD with the aim of transmission interruption is only appropriate in settings where initial transmission is very low (annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) 1–2 or prevalence approx. < 7–19% depending on case management levels). Every index case needs to be followed up, up to a maximum case-incidence threshold which defines the suitability threshold of settings for elimination using RCD. Increasing the search radius around index cases is always beneficial. Conclusions RCD is highly resource intensive, requiring testing and treating of 400–500 people every week for 5–10 years for a reasonable chance of elimination in a Zambia-like setting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 18 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Simulation Targeting Elimination Surveillance Response Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
spellingShingle |
Simulation Targeting Elimination Surveillance Response Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Theresa Reiker Nakul Chitnis Thomas Smith Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria |
topic_facet |
Simulation Targeting Elimination Surveillance Response Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background As areas move closer to malaria elimination, a combination of limited resources and increasing heterogeneity in case distribution and transmission favour a shift to targeted reactive interventions. Reactive case detection (RCD), the following up of additional individuals surrounding an index case, has the potential to target transmission pockets and identify asymptomatic cases in them. Current RCD implementation strategies vary, and it is unclear which are most effective in achieving elimination. Methods OpenMalaria, an established individual-based stochastic model, was used to simulate RCD in a Zambia-like setting. The capacity to follow up index cases, the search radius, the initial transmission and the case management coverage were varied. Suitable settings were identified and probabilities of elimination and time to elimination estimated. The value of routinely collected prevalence and incidence data for predicting the success of RCD was assessed. Results The results indicate that RCD with the aim of transmission interruption is only appropriate in settings where initial transmission is very low (annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) 1–2 or prevalence approx. < 7–19% depending on case management levels). Every index case needs to be followed up, up to a maximum case-incidence threshold which defines the suitability threshold of settings for elimination using RCD. Increasing the search radius around index cases is always beneficial. Conclusions RCD is highly resource intensive, requiring testing and treating of 400–500 people every week for 5–10 years for a reasonable chance of elimination in a Zambia-like setting. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Theresa Reiker Nakul Chitnis Thomas Smith |
author_facet |
Theresa Reiker Nakul Chitnis Thomas Smith |
author_sort |
Theresa Reiker |
title |
Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria |
title_short |
Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria |
title_full |
Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria |
title_fullStr |
Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria |
title_sort |
modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of plasmodium falciparum malaria |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 https://doaj.org/article/46c163efdc74460fa1e28d59035f5efe |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 18, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/46c163efdc74460fa1e28d59035f5efe |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-019-2893-9 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766341465654427648 |