Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change
Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:4652526ced5242aeb34975b8a9272bdb 2023-05-15T15:16:49+02:00 Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. J. Burke Y. Zhang G. Krinner 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020 https://doaj.org/article/4652526ced5242aeb34975b8a9272bdb EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3155/2020/tc-14-3155-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/4652526ced5242aeb34975b8a9272bdb The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3155-3174 (2020) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020 2022-12-31T02:37:42Z Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10 % –40 <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">%</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi/><mo>∘</mo></msup><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">C</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 14 9 3155 3174 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 E. J. Burke Y. Zhang G. Krinner Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Permafrost is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the Arctic. Its future evolution is likely to control changes in northern high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemistry. Here we evaluate the permafrost dynamics in the global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (present generation – CMIP6; previous generation – CMIP5) along with the sensitivity of permafrost to climate change. Whilst the northern high-latitude air temperatures are relatively well simulated by the climate models, they do introduce a bias into any subsequent model estimate of permafrost. Therefore evaluation metrics are defined in relation to the air temperature. This paper shows that the climate, snow and permafrost physics of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is very similar to that of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The main differences are that a small number of models have demonstrably better snow insulation in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 and a small number have a deeper soil profile. These changes lead to a small overall improvement in the representation of the permafrost extent. There is little improvement in the simulation of maximum summer thaw depth between CMIP5 and CMIP6. We suggest that more models should include a better-resolved and deeper soil profile as a first step towards addressing this. We use the annual mean thawed volume of the top 2 m of the soil defined from the model soil profiles for the permafrost region to quantify changes in permafrost dynamics. The CMIP6 models project that the annual mean frozen volume in the top 2 m of the soil could decrease by 10 % –40 <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3" display="inline" overflow="scroll" dspmath="mathml"><mrow class="unit"><mi mathvariant="normal">%</mi><mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><msup><mi/><mo>∘</mo></msup><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">C</mi><mrow><mo>-</mo><mn ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E. J. Burke Y. Zhang G. Krinner |
author_facet |
E. J. Burke Y. Zhang G. Krinner |
author_sort |
E. J. Burke |
title |
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
title_short |
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
title_full |
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
title_sort |
evaluating permafrost physics in the coupled model intercomparison project 6 (cmip6) models and their sensitivity to climate change |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020 https://doaj.org/article/4652526ced5242aeb34975b8a9272bdb |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 3155-3174 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3155/2020/tc-14-3155-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/4652526ced5242aeb34975b8a9272bdb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3155 |
op_container_end_page |
3174 |
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1766347112461631488 |