Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR
In this study, the performance of wind forecasts over Svalbard, located between the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea, was evaluated using the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA) system. The forecasts of the analysis–forecast...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:46344fe3bd3642db84e5dece55750fac 2023-05-15T14:14:33+02:00 Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR Dae-Hui Kim Hyun Mee Kim Jinkyu Hong 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 https://doaj.org/article/46344fe3bd3642db84e5dece55750fac EN eng Taylor & Francis Group http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 1523-0430 1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 https://doaj.org/article/46344fe3bd3642db84e5dece55750fac Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 51, Iss 1, Pp 471-489 (2019) polar wrf with 3dvar data assimilation wind forecast polar low svalbard Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 2022-12-31T16:32:38Z In this study, the performance of wind forecasts over Svalbard, located between the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea, was evaluated using the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA) system. The forecasts of the analysis–forecast cycling experiment using the PWRF 3DVAR were compared with those of the cold start experiment using reanalysis as the initial condition. Three strong wind cases that occurred during January and February 2011–2012 were selected, where polar lows were generated on the east coast of Greenland and generated a wind speed above 20 m s−1 in Svalbard. The wind speed forecasts for both cycling and cold start experiments were similar to the highest 10-minute average wind speed for the last 1 hour (HAW). The average root mean square error (RMSE) of the forecasts in the cold start experiment from HAW was 3.78 m s−1 for three cases and was greater than that in the cycling experiment. The forecast performance in the cycling experiment was comparable to, or even better than, that in the cold start experiment, which implies that the cycling system with DA is more useful than the cold start system in forecasting polar weather to support research activities. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norwegian Sea Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norwegian Sea Svalbard Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 51 1 471 489 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
polar wrf with 3dvar data assimilation wind forecast polar low svalbard Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
polar wrf with 3dvar data assimilation wind forecast polar low svalbard Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Dae-Hui Kim Hyun Mee Kim Jinkyu Hong Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR |
topic_facet |
polar wrf with 3dvar data assimilation wind forecast polar low svalbard Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
In this study, the performance of wind forecasts over Svalbard, located between the Arctic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea, was evaluated using the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (PWRF) model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA) system. The forecasts of the analysis–forecast cycling experiment using the PWRF 3DVAR were compared with those of the cold start experiment using reanalysis as the initial condition. Three strong wind cases that occurred during January and February 2011–2012 were selected, where polar lows were generated on the east coast of Greenland and generated a wind speed above 20 m s−1 in Svalbard. The wind speed forecasts for both cycling and cold start experiments were similar to the highest 10-minute average wind speed for the last 1 hour (HAW). The average root mean square error (RMSE) of the forecasts in the cold start experiment from HAW was 3.78 m s−1 for three cases and was greater than that in the cycling experiment. The forecast performance in the cycling experiment was comparable to, or even better than, that in the cold start experiment, which implies that the cycling system with DA is more useful than the cold start system in forecasting polar weather to support research activities. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Dae-Hui Kim Hyun Mee Kim Jinkyu Hong |
author_facet |
Dae-Hui Kim Hyun Mee Kim Jinkyu Hong |
author_sort |
Dae-Hui Kim |
title |
Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR |
title_short |
Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR |
title_full |
Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of wind forecasts over Svalbard using the high-resolution Polar WRF with 3DVAR |
title_sort |
evaluation of wind forecasts over svalbard using the high-resolution polar wrf with 3dvar |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 https://doaj.org/article/46344fe3bd3642db84e5dece55750fac |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norwegian Sea Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norwegian Sea Svalbard |
genre |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norwegian Sea Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Norwegian Sea Svalbard |
op_source |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 51, Iss 1, Pp 471-489 (2019) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 1523-0430 1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 https://doaj.org/article/46344fe3bd3642db84e5dece55750fac |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2019.1676939 |
container_title |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
471 |
op_container_end_page |
489 |
_version_ |
1766286959556165632 |